Strategy Buys $1.25 Billion in Bitcoin, But Sell-Side Pressure Remains a Challenge

Bitcoin's price remains below critical resistance levels amid ongoing sell-side pressure, despite recent strategic accumulation by institutional players. The cryptocurrency opened the year at $90,000 but has struggled to maintain a bullish trajectory, with key support and resistance zones shaping short-term price behavior. Market analysts suggest the price environment is still dominated by breakeven selling from positions opened near the previous all-time high.

Structural indicators suggest the market is transitioning from a defensive phase to a more selective re-risking environment. This shift is evident in reduced profit-taking activity and a clearer signal environment following the late-2025 deleveraging event. However, lingering supply overhangs between $92,100 and $117,400 continue to pose a challenge to a sustained rally.

Glassnode reports that the market remains in a consolidation phase, with rising breakeven sell-side pressure from investors who have held through the drawdown from the peak of $120,000 to $80,000. Clearing these overhangs will likely require time and resilience, with institutional buyers playing a key role in absorbing the resistance.

What Drives Sell-Side Pressure?

Sell-side pressure is largely driven by cohort wallets that bought near cycle highs and are now sitting near breakeven. These positions are not generating significant profit-taking but represent potential selling if prices fail to break above key levels.

Additionally, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the December Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data this week, a key macroeconomic event that could influence Bitcoin's price direction. The release could trigger volatility in the U.S. Dollar and, by extension, in risk assets such as Bitcoin.

How Is Institutional Demand Affecting the Market?

Institutional demand has returned to Bitcoin through U.S. spot ETF flows, signaling a cautious but constructive shift in trader sentiment. Recent inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs highlight an early return of institutional participation, though flows remain inconsistent.

Corporate treasury demand is also playing a role, with opportunistic and price-sensitive buying providing a floor for the market. These buyers are not driving a major trend shift but are contributing to downside support.

What Is MSCI's Role in Bitcoin's Market Dynamics?

MSCI has decided not to exclude digital asset treasury companies from its global equity indexes, a move that has been widely welcomed by market participants. The index provider cited investor feedback and the need for a broader consultation on non-operating assets.

This decision preserves the current inclusion rules for companies such as Strategy, which holds a significant amount of Bitcoin on its balance sheet. The firm's shares rose in after-hours trading following the announcement.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring Bitcoin's ability to break through the short-term holder (STH) cost basis near $99,000. A sustained move above this level could signal renewed confidence and a trend recovery. Conversely, failure to reclaim it could lead to an extended consolidation phase.

Derivatives markets also offer insight into market sentiment. Implied volatility has bottomed, and positioning is increasingly skewed toward call options. These signals suggest cautious optimism among traders, but the market remains fragile.

What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin in 2026?

Bitcoin's path forward depends on absorbing the supply overhang between $92,100 and $117,400 and maintaining positive ETF flows. If these conditions are met, the market could see a bullish continuation. However, macroeconomic conditions and regulatory developments will play a crucial role in shaping the outcome.

Market analysts have outlined three possible scenarios for the first quarter: a bull case where Bitcoin pushes toward $125,000, a base case where it consolidates between $85,000 and $105,000, and a bear case where it falls back toward $70,000.

For now, the market appears to be in a transition phase. Investors are repositioning for 2026, and while the fundamentals remain strong, the near-term price action will depend on whether the market can stabilize and move beyond current resistance levels.

What Implications Does This Hold for Investors?

Investors are advised to monitor key price levels, particularly the $92,000 and $117,400 resistance zones. A break above these levels could signal a shift in market sentiment, but investors should remain cautious until the price action confirms the breakout.

Macro volatility, driven by events such as the NFP report and potential U.S. Federal Reserve policy changes, could also impact Bitcoin's short-term trajectory. Investors are advised to consider these factors when making portfolio decisions.

The continued inclusion of Bitcoin-related companies in major equity indices provides short-term stability. However, investors should remain watchful for potential changes in index composition during the February 2026 review.