Can Strategy Buy 6,158 BTC Weekly? Analyst Says the HODL Model Is Breaking

Strategy (MSTR) is accelerating its Bitcoin acquisition program, aiming to reach 1 million BTC by the end of 2026. The company currently holds 738,731 BTC and needs to purchase an additional 261,269 BTC to meet its target according to reports. Recent data shows that Strategy has already acquired over 64,000 BTC this year, with one week alone seeing the purchase of 17,994 BTC.

The rapid accumulation is funded through a combination of equity and convertible debt. This week, Strategy raised $900 million in common stock sales and $377 million in preferred stock to support its Bitcoin buying spree according to reports. However, the company's stock price has dropped roughly 70% from its 2025 peak, raising concerns about capital availability and shareholder dilution according to analysis.

Analysts have mixed views on the strategy. Some argue that the company's aggressive Bitcoin purchases could drive prices higher due to dwindling supply, with projections of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 in 2026 according to analysis. Others warn that continued debt accumulation and falling stock prices may limit the program's long-term sustainability according to reports.

Why Did This Happen?

Strategy’s Bitcoin acquisition strategy is rooted in the belief that corporate treasuries can outpace miner production and reduce circulating supply. The company has spent $1.28 billion in a single week to buy 17,994 BTC, demonstrating its commitment to this model according to analysis. Analysts note that corporate buyers have already absorbed over four times the annual miner output in 2025, creating a structural shift in Bitcoin’s supply dynamics according to analysis.

This strategy is also influenced by the broader crypto industry's changing economics. Bitcoin mining has become unprofitable for many firms, with production costs per BTC reaching $87,000 in some cases according to reports. As a result, some miners are pivoting to AI and data center operations, which offer higher returns according to analysis.

How Did Markets React?

The market has responded to Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation with mixed signals. While the company's Bitcoin holdings have appreciated in value, its stock has suffered from heavy dilution. Outstanding shares have grown from 76 million to 320 million since 2025, raising concerns among investors according to analysis.

Despite the stock's decline, some analysts remain bullish. B. Riley upgraded Strategy to a Buy rating, citing its strong financial positioning and Bitcoin acquisition strategy. The firm projected that Strategy could generate $3-10 billion in Bitcoin gains in 2026 according to reports.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring several factors. First, Strategy’s ability to continue raising capital is critical to its success. The company has a $2.25 billion cash reserve to cover 30 months of interest and dividend obligations, but further debt issuance or equity offerings could impact shareholder value according to reports.

Second, the potential sale of Bitcoin by other corporate treasuries could create market overhang. MARA Holdings recently filed with the SEC to permit the sale of 53,822 BTC, valued at $3.5 billion, signaling a shift in how companies manage their Bitcoin assets according to reports.

Finally, the debate over Bitcoin’s network security is gaining traction. As miners shift to AI, some worry that reduced hash power could make the network vulnerable to attacks. However, Bitcoin pioneer Adam Back argues that the network will self-adjust to retain miners through lower difficulty and higher profitability according to analysis.

Investors are advised to track these developments closely, as they could shape Bitcoin’s price trajectory in the coming months.