Strategy's Bitcoin Holdings Could Reach 5% of Total Supply by 2033

Analysts at Bernstein have projected that Strategy, the Bitcoin proxy firm co-founded by Michael Saylor, could accumulate over 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) by 2033. This ambitious forecast suggests that Strategy could hold approximately 5% of BTC’s total supply, positioning the firm as a significant player in the cryptocurrency market.

Led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, Bernstein’s research note highlights an updated bullish outlook based on Strategy’s robust Q4 financial results and its recent aggressive Bitcoin purchases. The firm has assigned an “outperform” rating to Strategy’s stock with a price target of $600, indicating a potential upside of 75% from its current trading level.

Bernstein’s analysis predicts that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, $500,000 by 2029, and soar to $1 million by 2033. This projected growth in Bitcoin’s value is expected to significantly enhance Strategy’s earnings per share, which are anticipated to rise to $207, up from the current $67.50.

In a “bull case” scenario, the analysts predict that Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings could increase to represent 5.8% of the current circulating supply of approximately 19.8 million BTC, compared to only 2.5% at present. This growth is contingent on favorable capital market conditions with low interest rates and a sustained bull cycle in cryptocurrency. However, this expansion comes with a substantial increase in debt, which Bernstein estimates could reach $100 billion, coupled with equity proceeds of around $84 billion.

In a more conservative base case, the analysts expect Strategy’s holdings to climb to about 4% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, while a bear case could see stagnation at approximately 2.6%, potentially leading to forced liquidations of assets. As of March 25, Strategy owned 506,137 Bitcoin, acquired at an average price of $66,608, which equates to a total value of around $33.7 billion. Recently, the company made headlines by purchasing an additional 6,911 BTC for $584.1 million through a combination of selling MSTR stock and issuing perpetual preferred shares.

Bernstein views Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury as a core component of its business model, despite facing challenges related to its premium-to-net asset value (NAV) valuation and the aggressive pace of its Bitcoin acquisitions. On Tuesday, Strategy’s shares closed at $341.81, reflecting a gain of 1.8%, reinforcing its position as a key player in institutional Bitcoin accumulation.