Strategy's Bitcoin Holdings Could Double by 2033, Bernstein Says

Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, has been aggressively accumulating Bitcoin, positioning it as a core part of its corporate strategy. According to a recent report from Bernstein, the company's Bitcoin holdings could surge to over 1 million BTC by 2033, assuming favorable market conditions. Currently, Strategy holds 506,137 BTC, making it the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. Bernstein's bullish forecast suggests that this amount could more than double, reaching 1,013,000 BTC, which would be equivalent to 5.8% of Bitcoin’s current circulating supply. This projection is based on the assumption that Bitcoin will hit $200,000 by 2025, $500,000 by 2029, and eventually $1 million by 2033.

To fund this ambitious expansion, Strategy would likely rely heavily on the capital markets. This could involve increasing its debt from $11 billion to a staggering $100 billion while raising $84 billion in equity. The analysts believe that lower interest rates and strong investor demand would be crucial factors in making this plan feasible. However, the report also acknowledges potential risks. If Bitcoin reaches a peak in 2025 and then starts a long decline, Strategy might stop buying more BTC and hold around 514,800 BTC, which is just 2.6% of the total supply. In this scenario, the company might even have to sell some of its Bitcoin to manage its growing debt, which would still climb but to a smaller amount—around $51 billion.

Despite these risks, Bernstein remains confident in Strategy’s long-term position, maintaining an “outperform” rating and setting a $600 price target—representing a 75% upside from current levels. The firm’s valuation model applies a 2x EV/sales multiple to Strategy’s software segment and a 55% premium on its Bitcoin holdings, in line with its average market valuation since pivoting to Bitcoin in 2020. Meanwhile, Strategy continues its Bitcoin buying spree. Between March 17 and March 23, the company added another 6,911 BTC for $584.1 million, further solidifying its commitment to Bitcoin as its primary treasury asset. Whether Bitcoin soars or faces challenges, Strategy is going all in on its bet that digital gold is here to stay.