Strategy's Bitcoin Buying Spree Drives Supply Crunch, Prices Soar

Michael Saylor’s company, Strategy, is effectively “synthetically halving Bitcoin” by buying more than half of all newly mined BTC each month. This aggressive accumulation is far exceeding miner output, which is predicted to fuel a Bitcoin supply crunch, drive up prices, and make borrowing BTC a lot more expensive. Miners currently produce around 450 BTC daily, which totals roughly 13,500 BTC per month. However, Strategy acquired an astonishing 379,800 BTC over the past six months. This means the firm purchased around 2,087 BTC per day, which is greatly exceeding the global daily miner output.

This level of accumulation will make Bitcoin dramatically scarcer, and could push the asset into an environment where access will require paying large premiums. As a result, lending against Bitcoin will become increasingly expensive, borrowing BTC will be a luxury reserved for major corporations and nation-states, and Strategy will have a dominant influence over Bitcoin’s cost of capital. This prediction points to an impending Bitcoin supply crunch, and suggests that if Strategy maintains this acquisition pace while institutional and retail demand grows, Bitcoin prices could soar much higher.

Despite the concerns over the sustainability of Strategy’s debt-fueled Bitcoin purchases, especially if a prolonged bear market emerges, some Bitcoin advocates argue that Strategy’s dominance is not a threat to the protocol itself. Even if institutions like Strategy and BlackRock hold large portions of Bitcoin’s supply, they will have no incentive to manipulate the network’s rules, like increasing the maximum supply. Doing so will devalue their holdings, which ultimately belong to shareholders who could move their investments elsewhere. Thus, while Strategy’s aggressive accumulation strategy is reshaping Bitcoin’s financial landscape, many believe it only strengthens Bitcoin’s fundamental scarcity rather than undermining its decentralized ethos.

Investment firms with Bitcoin-focused treasury strategies are increasingly front-running global Bitcoin adoption, and could potentially pave the way for the world’s first cryptocurrency to reach a $200 trillion market capitalization in the next decade. Institutions and governments are beginning to recognize Bitcoin’s unique monetary properties. Companies like Strategy are engaging in a logical and sustainable arbitrage of the gap between the current fiat world and a Bitcoin-driven future, a move scalable enough for most major listed companies to transition their treasuries to Bitcoin.

The phenomenon is known as hyperbitcoinization, where Bitcoin replaces fiat currencies as the dominant global money, and it is being fueled by Bitcoin’s consistent outpacing of fiat money inflation. This is not a temporary trend but a rational and sustainable arbitrage play, driven by Bitcoin's superior long-term price appreciation over inflation and interest rates across four-year periods. Momentum for corporate Bitcoin accumulation is still growing. Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, already generated over $5.1 billion in profit from its Bitcoin treasury since the beginning of 2025. Japanese investment firm Metaplanet, also embraced this approach and even surpassed 5,000 BTC in holdings and set a goal of reaching 21,000 BTC by 2026.

Meanwhile, the regulatory landscape in the United States is becoming a lot more favorable. The Federal Reserve’s withdrawal of its 2022 guidance discouraging banks from engaging with cryptocurrency opened the door for even more institutional participation. Banks are now free to support Bitcoin and will be supervised through normal regulatory processes. This means that there is a much more open environment for digital asset integration. As financial institutions and corporations continue to move into Bitcoin, the foundation for hyperbitcoinization seems to be strengthening.

Certain countries are also making sure to stock up on Bitcoin. El Salvador, the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, is still quietly accumulating Bitcoin despite comments from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggesting otherwise. In the seven days leading up to April 27, El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office recorded the acquisition of 7 Bitcoin, which is valued at over $650,000. The IMF’s program with El Salvador is focused not on Bitcoin but on broader structural reforms, including governance and transparency. This program was part of a $1.4 billion loan deal that was struck in December of 2024, which required El Salvador to stop treating Bitcoin as legal tender and cease government-led Bitcoin purchases.

However, there appears to be some flexibility in the interpretation of the agreement. The "flexible interpretation" could mean that Bitcoin purchases are being conducted through non-governmental or reclassified entities, which allows the country to technically remain compliant with IMF conditions. This approach makes it possible for El Salvador to preserve its Bitcoin-friendly reputation while still securing vital IMF funding needed to manage public debt and financial reserves. El Salvador’s strategy shed some light on the broader tension between financial innovation and traditional international economic frameworks. The country’s experience provides important lessons for other nations considering crypto adoption, particularly regarding the need for strong regulatory systems and the ability to balance domestic innovation with global financial expectations.