Strategy's 6.38% Plunge: Rebranding, S&P 500 Exclusion, and Bitcoin Accumulation Spark Turbulence

Summary
• Strategy (MSTR) rebranded to 'Strategy' with a Bitcoin-themed logo and orange brand identity, signaling a strategic pivot.
• The stock plunged 6.38% intraday to $302.68, hitting a low of $301.76, amid a paused ATM program and S&P 500 exclusion.
• Unusual options activity saw 684,800 call contracts traded, reflecting bullish conviction despite the selloff.

Strategy’s dramatic intraday decline reflects a confluence of rebranding uncertainty, regulatory skepticism, and capital structure shifts. The stock’s 6.38% drop—its worst since the 52-week low of $157.02—has drawn sharp options activity and raised questions about its ETF-like structure and index eligibility.

Rebranding, S&P 500 Exclusion, and ATM Pause Drive Sharp Correction
The selloff stems from three critical catalysts: 1) The rebranding to 'Strategy' introduced short-term uncertainty, with investors questioning the impact on brand recognition and institutional ownership. 2) Exclusion from the S&P 500 index, despite meeting inclusion criteria, dented sentiment, as the index addition had been viewed as a potential bullish catalyst. 3) The first pause in the MSTR ATM program since August 18 raised concerns about capital deployment strategy, with $16.11 billion remaining in the $21 billion ATM capacity. These factors created a perfect storm of profit-taking and risk-off behavior.

Blockchain Sector Volatility Intensifies as MARA Mirrors MSTR's Decline
The blockchain sector, led by Marathon Digital (MARA), mirrored MSTR’s volatility, with MARA down 6.21% intraday. Both stocks face headwinds from macroeconomic uncertainty and regulatory scrutiny. However, MSTR’s unique Bitcoin treasury model and Nasdaq 100 inclusion provide a structural advantage over pure-play miners like MARA, which rely on operational Bitcoin production.

Options Playbook: Puts for Protection, Calls for Conviction
• MACD: -8.42 (Signal: -10.23, Histogram: 1.81) indicates bearish momentum.
• RSI: 47.49 (Neutral) suggests oversold conditions but no clear trend.
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $302.68 (vs. Lower Band: $319.34) shows oversold pressure.
• 200D MA: $353.23 (Price: $302.68) highlights significant bearish divergence.

Top Put Option: MSTR20251003P290 (Strike: $290, Expiry: 10/3, IV: 65.12%, Leverage: 38.80%, Delta: -0.35, Theta: -0.108, Gamma: 0.0121). This contract offers high leverage and liquidity, with a 277% price change ratio. A 5% downside scenario (to $287.56) would yield a put payoff of $2.44 per contract, or 8.4% of the strike price.
Top Call Option: MSTR20251003C310 (Strike: $310, Expiry: 10/3, IV: 66.71%, Leverage: 36.09%, Delta: 0.396, Theta: -1.181, Gamma: 0.0123). This call balances moderate delta with high gamma, ideal for a rebound above $310. A 5% upside to $317.76 would yield a call payoff of $7.76 per contract, or 2.5% of the strike price.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider MSTR20251003C310 into a bounce above $310, while risk-managed bears should target MSTR20251003P290 if support at $300 breaks.

Backtest Strategy Stock Performance
Here is the back-test you requested. Please refer to the interactive module on the right to explore the strategy details, parameter settings, and performance chart.Notes & assumptions 1. Date range: 2022-01-01 to 2025-09-25 (auto-filled from “2022 to now”). 2. Intraday plunge proxy: used the daily close-to-close move ≤ -6 % because 1-minute intraday lows are not available in the current data interface. 3. No risk-control or exit rule was supplied, so the position remains open until the study end date; this may overstate performance versus a practical implementation. 4. Feel free to ask if you’d like alternative exit criteria, intraday-low definitions, or additional statistics.

Short-Term Volatility Expected: Key Levels and Options to Watch
The 6.38% selloff reflects near-term uncertainty around the rebranding and index exclusion, but the stock remains within its 52-week range. Watch for a test of the 30D support at $327.31 and 200D support at $325.13. If the $310 level breaks, the MSTR20251003P290 put offers downside protection. Conversely, a rebound above $317.76 could reignite call option activity. The sector leader, MARA, down 6.21%, underscores the sector’s fragility. Investors should prioritize liquidity and leverage ratios in options selection while monitoring the earnings call for strategic clarity.