Strategy's 15min chart shows MACD Death Cross, KDJ Death Cross signals.

According to the 15-minute chart of the strategy, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Kappa Distribution Index (KDJ) indicators both recently triggered a "Death Cross" event on August 29, 2025 at 10:00. This indicates that the stock price is likely to continue declining, as the momentum of the stock price has shifted towards the downside and may continue to decrease further.

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) is trading at around $732, maintaining a near-flat intraday performance but significantly below its 52-week high of $969.65. This stability comes despite record earnings driven by obesity and diabetes drugs, and looming U.S. drug pricing reforms. Lilly remains the most valuable pharmaceutical company globally, with a market capitalization of $656 billion, but its valuation premium leaves little room for error in a politically charged environment [1].

Second-quarter 2025 results showed revenue at $15.56 billion, up 38% year over year, and net income nearly doubled to $5.68 billion. The star of Lilly's portfolio is tirzepatide, marketed as Mounjaro for Type 2 diabetes and Zepbound for obesity, which together generated $8.6 billion in Q2 sales. Mounjaro contributed $5.2 billion, and Zepbound added $3.4 billion, making tirzepatide the best-selling drug worldwide [1].

Lilly is also expanding its pipeline with orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 pill that showed 12.4% weight loss at 72 weeks in Phase 3 trials. Despite initial Wall Street disappointment, additional data confirmed its efficacy, showing 10.5% weight reduction versus 2.2% with placebo. The drug's convenience and cost advantage over Novo’s peptide-based oral semaglutide make it a promising growth engine for Lilly [1].

However, political reforms in Washington pose a significant threat. President Trump’s Most Favored Nation policy aims to slash U.S. drug prices to match the lowest prices in developed markets, potentially cutting margins by up to 1,500%. Lilly has responded by raising international prices and expanding LillyDirect, its direct-to-consumer platform [1].

Financial performance is robust, with trailing twelve-month revenue at $53.26 billion, gross profit at $44 billion, and diluted EPS of $15.30. Forward 2025 guidance projects $22.83 EPS on revenue of $61.7 billion. Despite heavy R&D and manufacturing investments, operating cash flow remains strong at $10.9 billion. Debt levels are elevated at $39.98 billion, giving a debt-to-equity ratio above 217%, but liquidity ratios and cash flow suggest manageable obligations [1].

Valuation remains a double-edged sword. At a forward P/E of 32.1 and P/S ratio of 12.4, NYSE:LLY trades at a steep premium versus sector averages closer to 20x earnings and 5x sales. The PEG ratio of 1.06 suggests growth justifies part of this valuation, but the stock leaves no room for execution missteps or regulatory shocks [1].

The recent "Death Cross" event on August 29, 2025, as indicated by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Kappa Distribution Index (KDJ) indicators, suggests a potential continued decline in the stock price. This event indicates a shift in momentum towards the downside, which may continue to decrease further [2].

For existing holders, the innovation pipeline and global obesity demand justify staying invested. For new investors, NYSE:LLY is a Hold, with the opportunity to buy aggressively on dips below $750, where long-term upside toward a trillion-dollar market cap remains achievable.

References:
[1] https://www.tradingnews.com/news/eli-lilly-nyse-lly-stock-price-holds-732-usd
[2] https://www.tradingnews.com/news/eli-lilly-nyse-lly-stock-price-holds-732-usd