U.S. Strategic Vulnerabilities: Geopolitical Risks in TikTok, Boeing, and Rare Earths Supply Chains

The United States' economic and national security resilience hinges on its ability to mitigate underappreciated geopolitical exposures in three critical sectors: digital data control (TikTok), aerospace supply chains (Boeing), and rare earth mineral dependencies. While these risks are often siloed in investment analyses, their interplay reveals systemic vulnerabilities that global portfolios must address.

TikTok: Algorithmic Sovereignty and Data Control

The proposed joint venture to restructure TikTok's U.S. operations under Oracle's oversight has sparked intense debate. According to a report by Forbes, Oracle will license TikTok's algorithm, retrain it using U.S. user data, and store data on American servers, aiming to address national security concernsTikTok’s Future: U.S. Owners To Control Algorithm And Data^[1]. However, the U.S. government's refusal to take a board seat or equity stake raises questions about its ability to enforce long-term safeguardsAmerica's Reliance on Boeing Is a National Security Liability^[2]. Critics argue that ByteDance's continued influence over the algorithm could enable covert manipulation of content recommendations, potentially serving Chinese or U.S. political interestsThe 2025 Rare Earth Flashpoint: Policy Escalations and Logistics Impacts^[5]. This deal sets a precedent for cross-border digital governance, where algorithmic control becomes a geopolitical bargaining chip rather than a purely technical issueU.S. is unable to replace rare earths supply from China, warns …^[3]. For investors, the uncertainty around regulatory outcomes and data sovereignty risks could destabilize TikTok's valuation and broader social media ecosystems.

Boeing: Supply Chain Fragility and Defense Liabilities

Boeing's recent financial and operational struggles underscore the fragility of U.S. aerospace supply chains. A Reason analysis highlights how the company's $3 billion Q4 2024 loss—driven by labor strikes, tariffs on Canadian parts, and fixed-price defense program overruns—has disrupted production of critical military aircraft like the F-15 EagleThe 2025 Rare Earth Flashpoint: Policy Escalations and Logistics Impacts^[5]. Cybersecurity vulnerabilities further compound these risks: Boeing's suppliers handle sensitive defense data under strict DFARS and CMMC regulations, yet breaches in any node could cascade across the sectorAmerica's Reliance on Boeing Is a National Security Liability^[2]. The U.S. Department of Defense's National Defense Industrial Strategy emphasizes the need for diversified partnerships and performance-based penalties for contractorsTikTok’s Future: U.S. Owners To Control Algorithm And Data^[1]. For investors, Boeing's challenges reflect a broader industry-wide vulnerability: overreliance on single-point suppliers and the rising costs of geopolitical tariffs. While production rates for the 737 MAX and 787 are expected to stabilize by mid-2025Boeing Executive Sees Supply-Demand Balance by End of Decade^[4], the long-term resilience of Boeing's supply chain remains contingent on policy interventions and technological innovation.

Rare Earths: China's Dominance and Strategic Bottlenecks

The U.S. rare earth supply chain remains perilously exposed to Chinese dominance. As stated by CNBC, China controls 90% of global processing capacity for heavy rare earth elements, which are critical for defense systems and renewable energy technologiesAmerica's Reliance on Boeing Is a National Security Liability^[2]. Recent export restrictions on seven rare earth elements and magnets have already disrupted shipments, forcing the U.S. to impose steep tariffs on Chinese graphiteThe 2025 Rare Earth Flashpoint: Policy Escalations and Logistics Impacts^[5]. Despite domestic initiatives like MP Materials' processing facilities and the Inflation Reduction Act's incentives, the Department of Defense acknowledges that self-sufficiency by 2027 is unlikelyTikTok’s Future: U.S. Owners To Control Algorithm And Data^[1]. A GAO report underscores that even with $439 million in federal investments since 2020, the U.S. will remain dependent on China for over 80% of rare earth imports in the near termU.S. is unable to replace rare earths supply from China, warns …^[3]. For investors, this dependency represents a high-geopolitical-risk asset class, where policy shocks and trade tensions could trigger sudden supply chain collapses.

Strategic Implications for Global Portfolios

The interconnected risks in TikTok's data control, Boeing's supply chain, and rare earth dependencies reveal a broader pattern: the U.S. economy's reliance on systems that are both technologically advanced and geopolitically fragile. Investors must weigh these vulnerabilities against short-term gains, recognizing that underappreciated risks—such as algorithmic manipulation, supplier concentration, and mineral bottlenecks—could trigger systemic shocks. Policymakers, meanwhile, face the challenge of balancing innovation with security, whether through industrial policy for rare earths, diversified aerospace contracts, or stringent digital governance frameworks.

As global portfolios increasingly prioritize ESG and geopolitical resilience, the U.S. strategic vulnerabilities outlined here demand a recalibration of risk assessments. The coming years will test whether these sectors can evolve from liabilities into assets—or whether their fragility will define a new era of geopolitical instability.