Strategic Seabed Mining Alliances: The US-Cook Islands Partnership and Its Implications for Critical Minerals Supply Chains

The global scramble for critical minerals has reached a new frontier: the ocean floor. As nations and corporations vie for control over polymetallic nodules, cobalt-rich crusts, and rare earth elements buried in the deep sea, the United States and the Cook Islands have forged a partnership that underscores the growing geopolitical stakes in seabed mining. This alliance, announced in 2025, is not merely a commercial endeavor but a strategic maneuver in the broader U.S.-China competition for dominance in the critical minerals supply chain. For investors, the implications are profound, particularly for firms like The Metals Company (TMC), which sits at the center of this high-stakes race.

A Geopolitical Chessboard Beneath the Waves

The Cook Islands, a self-governing nation in free association with New Zealand, holds one of the most promising Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) in the world. Its vast maritime territory, rich in polymetallic nodules containing cobalt, nickel, and manganese, has become a focal point for global powers seeking to secure resources critical to green technologies, defense systems, and industrial infrastructure. The U.S. partnership with the Cook Islands, announced in 2025, is a direct response to China's growing influence in the Pacific. Just months prior, the Cook Islands had signed a comprehensive strategic partnership with China, including provisions for seabed mineral exploration. The U.S. move to counter this alignment is part of a broader strategy to reduce reliance on Chinese-controlled supply chains and assert American technological and regulatory leadership in deep-sea mining.

The Trump administration's April 2025 executive order, Unleashing America's Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources, has accelerated this agenda. By fast-tracking U.S. licensing for seabed mining and bypassing the International Seabed Authority (ISA), the U.S. has positioned itself as a rogue actor in a field governed by fragile multilateral norms. This unilateral approach, while controversial, aligns with the administration's broader goal of securing a “China-free” supply chain for critical minerals. The Cook Islands, with its EEZ described as “one of the most promising regions for deep-sea mineral deposits,” is now a key battleground in this contest.

The Metals Company: A High-Risk, High-Reward Play

At the heart of this geopolitical drama is The Metals Company (TMC), a Canadian-registered firm with a U.S. subsidiary that has emerged as a pioneer in deep-seabed mining. TMC's recent financial and strategic developments highlight both the potential and the perils of investing in this nascent industry.

In June 2025, TMC secured a $85 million investment from Korea Zinc, a major player in non-ferrous metal refining, signaling growing confidence in its technology and resource base. The firm's Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) for the NORI-D project in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) estimates a net present value (NPV) of $5.5 billion and a combined resource value of $23.6 billion. These figures, if realized, would position TMC as a dominant player in the seabed mining sector. However, the company's financials remain precarious. For the trailing twelve months (TTM), TMC reported a net loss of $77 million, with no revenue and a stock price that has swung wildly—from a 424% surge in the past year to a 24.8% drop following the U.S. easing of semiconductor export restrictions to China.

TMC's stock volatility reflects the dual forces of optimism and uncertainty. On one hand, the company's alignment with U.S. national security priorities—emphasized in lobbying efforts tied to the National Defense Authorization Act—has bolstered its political capital. On the other, regulatory delays, environmental concerns, and the unproven scalability of deep-sea mining technology pose significant risks. The ISA and environmental groups have raised alarms about the ecological impact of nodule extraction, with some Pacific Island nations advocating for a moratorium.

Strategic Alliances and Regulatory Leverage

The U.S.-Cook Islands partnership offers TMC a unique advantage. By leveraging American regulatory frameworks and technological expertise, the company is well-positioned to fast-track its commercial operations. TMC's subsidiary submitted the first application for seabed mining under the U.S. 1980 Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act, a move that aligns with the administration's push to bypass the ISA. This regulatory shortcut, while legally contentious, could give TMC a first-mover advantage in the CCZ, where China-linked firms like The Metals Company (TMC) and Canadian firm TMC are also vying for permits.

However, the geopolitical risks are not limited to regulatory hurdles. The Cook Islands' relationship with New Zealand, which suspended budgetary support in June 2025, adds another layer of complexity. New Zealand's concerns about Chinese influence in the Pacific could lead to diplomatic friction, potentially complicating the U.S.-Cook Islands collaboration. For TMC, this means navigating a volatile landscape where political alliances and environmental advocacy can shift rapidly.

Investment Considerations: Balancing Opportunity and Risk

For investors, the key question is whether TMC's potential rewards outweigh its risks. The company's technological advancements and strategic positioning in the U.S. supply chain are compelling, but its financial instability and regulatory uncertainties cannot be ignored. The recent $85 million investment from Korea Zinc and the Trump administration's executive order suggest strong short-term tailwinds. However, the long-term viability of seabed mining hinges on resolving environmental concerns and establishing a sustainable regulatory framework.

Investors should also consider the broader geopolitical context. The U.S. and China are locked in a race to dominate critical minerals, and seabed mining is a critical front in this contest. While the U.S. has taken a hardline stance on regulatory independence, this approach risks alienating smaller Pacific nations and undermining multilateral governance. For TMC, this could mean a fragmented market with competing regulatory regimes, complicating its ability to scale operations.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Bet on the Future

The U.S.-Cook Islands seabed mining partnership is a microcosm of the global struggle for critical minerals. For TMC, it represents both an opportunity to capitalize on a nascent industry and a test of its ability to navigate geopolitical and environmental challenges. While the company's financials and stock price remain speculative, its alignment with U.S. strategic priorities and technological advancements make it a compelling, albeit risky, investment.

Investors should approach TMC with a long-term perspective, recognizing that the deep-sea mining industry is still in its infancy. The regulatory and environmental hurdles are significant, but the potential rewards—both financial and geopolitical—are equally substantial. As the race for seabed resources intensifies, TMC's ability to adapt to shifting alliances and technological breakthroughs will determine its success. For now, the ocean floor remains a frontier of opportunity, and the stakes have never been higher.