Strategic Minerals and Geopolitical Tensions: Why CRML and MP Stocks Are Poised for Growth in 2026

The global race for critical minerals has intensified in 2025, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, U.S. efforts to secure domestic supply chains, and China's near-monopoly over rare earth processing. For investors, two names-Critical Metals (CRML) and MP Materials (MP)-stand out as pivotal players in this high-stakes arena. With production milestones, strategic partnerships, and direct government backing, these companies are positioned to capitalize on a structural shift in the rare earths market.

MP Materials: A Fully Integrated Supply Chain Powerhouse

MP Materials has emerged as a linchpin in the U.S. rare earth strategy. In 2025, the company secured a $400 million preferred equity investment from the Pentagon and a $150 million loan from the Department of Defense (DoD), signaling Washington's urgent need to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers. These funds are accelerating MP's transformation from a rare-earth concentrate producer to a fully integrated magnet manufacturer.

Production metrics underscore MP's momentum. The company reported record neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide output of 597 metric tons in Q2 2025, a 119% year-over-year increase, with revenue rising 84% to $57.4 million. By mid-2026, MP aims to commission a heavy rare-earth separation facility at its Mountain Pass mine, enabling the production of dysprosium and terbium-critical for high-performance magnets in electric vehicles (EVs) and defense systems. A $500 million multiyear agreement with Apple and a joint venture with Saudi Arabia's mining company further diversify its revenue streams and geopolitical footprint.

Critical Metals and Greenland: A Strategic Frontier

Critical Metals' acquisition of the Tanbreez site in Greenland-a deposit among the world's largest rare-earth reserves-positions it as a key beneficiary of the U.S. push for mineral independence. Greenland's strategic value has been amplified by President Donald Trump's 2025 remarks, in which he reiterated his interest in acquiring the territory to counter Russian and Chinese influence in the Arctic. While infrastructure challenges and technical hurdles persist, the U.S. government's prioritization of Greenland's resources aligns with Critical Metals' long-term vision.

China's dominance in rare earth processing-controlling 90% of global refining capacity- heightens the urgency for U.S. alternatives. Trump's strategy to diversify supply chains, including partnerships with Japan and Australia, complements Critical Metals' Greenland assets, which could eventually offset China's grip on downstream processing.

Geopolitical Risks and Investment Opportunities

The rare earth sector is inherently tied to geopolitical dynamics. China's Arctic ambitions, including its "Polar Silk Road" initiatives, directly challenge U.S. interests in Greenland. Meanwhile, Trump's aggressive stance on mineral security-coupled with the DoD's $400 million investment in MP-reflects a broader policy shift toward self-sufficiency.

For investors, this environment creates a dual opportunity:
1. MP Materials offers near-term visibility through its production milestones and strategic contracts, including a 2026 magnet supply deal with General Motors.
2. Critical Metals benefits from long-term geopolitical tailwinds, as Greenland's potential to disrupt China's processing dominance gains traction.

However, risks remain. Production delays, technical challenges in Greenland, and geopolitical miscalculations could hinder execution. Yet, given the scale of government support and the strategic imperative to secure critical minerals, these risks appear manageable.

Conclusion: A Must-Watch Sector in 2026

As the U.S. accelerates its push for mineral independence, CRML and MP are uniquely positioned to benefit from both policy tailwinds and market demand. MP's integrated supply chain and production scalability, combined with Critical Metals' Greenland assets, offer a compelling case for investors seeking exposure to the intersection of geopolitics and resource scarcity. With China's dominance under pressure and Trump's Arctic ambitions gaining momentum, these stocks represent a high-conviction bet on the evolving global minerals landscape.