Strategic Minerals and Geopolitical Leverage: Assessing the Investment Case for Copper in a Trump-Administered US

The U.S. copper sector is at a crossroads, shaped by a confluence of geopolitical strategy, regulatory shifts, and the urgent demand for critical minerals in the clean energy transition. As the Trump administration intensifies its focus on mineral security, the Resolution Copper project—now mired in legal and cultural disputes—has become a litmus test for how the U.S. will balance economic ambition with environmental and indigenous rights. For investors, this moment offers a unique lens to assess the interplay of policy, supply chain resilience, and the valuation of copper-exposed equities.

Geopolitical Tailwinds and the Copper Imperative

Copper is no longer just a commodity; it is a strategic asset. With the global push for decarbonization, the U.S. requires 45% more copper by 2030 to meet the demands of electric vehicles, renewable energy grids, and advanced manufacturing. The Resolution Copper project, if operationalized, could supply 25% of U.S. demand, reducing reliance on imports from politically volatile regions. Yet, the project's recent legal setback—stemming from a 9th Circuit Court injunction—has exposed the fragility of domestic mineral security.

The Trump administration's response has been aggressive. Tariffs on copper-intensive products, accelerated permitting under the Defense Production Act (DPA), and direct engagement with mining giants like Rio Tinto and BHP signal a clear intent: to prioritize domestic production. The July 2025 White House meeting with Rio Tinto's Jakob Stausholm and BHP's Mike Henry, held just days before the land transfer was halted, underscores the administration's determination to fast-track the project. Trump's public framing of the mine as a “national security imperative” aligns with broader efforts to insulate the U.S. from foreign supply chain risks, particularly from China, which dominates 60% of global copper refining capacity.

Supply Chain Resilience and the DPA Playbook

The administration's strategy extends beyond the Resolution project. By mandating that 25% of U.S.-produced copper scrap be sold domestically and requiring a growing share of input materials to stay in the U.S., the DPA is reshaping the copper value chain. These measures aim to bolster domestic refining capacity, which currently lags behind production. For mining companies with U.S. processing facilities—like Rio Tinto's Morenci smelter—this creates a dual advantage: securing raw material access and capturing higher-margin downstream processing.

Meanwhile, the 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products has already triggered a 5% price increase in U.S. wire and cable markets, as seen in the recent moves by Southwire and Cerro Wire. While this raises short-term costs for consumers, it also strengthens pricing power for domestic producers. Analysts at CRU Group note that the margin between copper prices and finished goods could widen further, creating a tailwind for companies that control both extraction and processing.

The Resolution Copper Dilemma: Risk or Catalyst?

The project's legal limbo is a double-edged sword. On one hand, delays risk eroding investor confidence and complicating the administration's mineral security goals. On the other, the heightened scrutiny may force a reevaluation of how the U.S. balances indigenous rights with resource extraction. The San Carlos Apache Tribe's legal challenge—rooted in the protection of sacred sites like Oak Flat—has galvanized public opinion and highlighted the need for inclusive consultation processes.

For investors, this uncertainty is not a deterrent but a signal of the project's strategic importance. Rio Tinto and BHP, which hold 55% and 45% stakes in the venture, have signaled confidence in eventual approval. Their engagement with the Trump administration, including assurances that all copper will be processed domestically, suggests a long-term bet on U.S. policy alignment. The recent CFIUS clearance further reduces foreign investment risks, making the project a bellwether for future mineral projects.

Investment Implications: Copper-Exposed Equities in Focus

The confluence of policy and demand creates a compelling case for copper-exposed mining equities. Key players to watch include:
1. Rio Tinto (RIO.AX): With the Resolution project and U.S. refining assets, Rio Tinto is positioned to benefit from both production and processing tailwinds.
2. BHP Group (BHP.NY): As a partner in Resolution Copper and a global leader in critical minerals, BHP's U.S. operations could see increased throughput under the DPA.
3. Southwire Co. LLC (SW): A domestic wire producer poised to capitalize on higher margins from tariffs and reduced foreign competition.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for Mineral Security

The Resolution Copper project and the Trump administration's mineral strategy represent a pivotal moment in U.S. resource policy. While legal and cultural challenges persist, the administration's aggressive use of tariffs, DPA tools, and executive orders signals a long-term commitment to reshaping the copper supply chain. For investors, this environment favors companies with U.S. exposure, robust refining capabilities, and alignment with national security priorities. As the 9th Circuit's review unfolds and the DPA initiatives gain momentum, copper-exposed equities are likely to outperform in a landscape where geopolitical leverage and supply chain resilience are paramount.

The message is clear: in a Trump-administered U.S., copper is not just a metal—it's a geopolitical lever. And for those who understand how to wield it, the rewards could be substantial.