Strategic Deepwater Plays in Nigeria: Evaluating TotalEnergies’ Exit and Shell’s Expansion as a Catalyst for Energy Investors

The Nigerian deepwater oil sector is undergoing a seismic shift as TotalEnergies exits and Shell expands its footprint, reshaping the investment landscape for energy firms and stakeholders. TotalEnergies’ $510 million sale of its 12.5% stake in the Bonga field to Shell marks a strategic pivot toward low-cost, low-emission assets like the Ubeta gas project, which is projected to produce 70,000 barrels of condensate daily by 2027 [1]. Meanwhile, Shell’s acquisition of the stake elevates its interest in the Bonga field to 67.5%, aligning with its $5 billion investment in the Bonga North project, which aims for first oil by 2027 [2]. These moves reflect a broader trend of energy majors recalibrating portfolios to balance profitability, sustainability, and geopolitical risks.

Strategic Reallocation: A Dual-Track Approach

TotalEnergies’ exit from the Bonga field underscores its focus on optimizing capital allocation. By divesting non-core, higher-cost assets, the company is redirecting resources to projects with lower technical and environmental costs, such as Ubeta, which integrates with Nigeria LNG’s expansion plans [3]. This aligns with TotalEnergies’ broader strategy to reduce its cash breakeven and enhance returns in a low-margin energy environment [4].

Shell, conversely, is doubling down on deepwater and integrated gas operations. The Bonga North project, a $5 billion subsea tie-back to the existing FPSO Bonga, is expected to add 110,000 barrels per day at peak production [5]. Shell’s increased stake in the Bonga field also complements its 1.4 million barrels per day of liquids production target, reinforcing its position in Nigeria’s deepwater sector [6]. These investments highlight Shell’s confidence in Nigeria’s regulatory reforms, including the Petroleum Industry Act, which has de-risked projects and attracted $550 million in additional commitments from ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies [7].

Regulatory Tailwinds and Geopolitical Headwinds

Nigeria’s deepwater sector benefits from a favorable regulatory environment, with fiscal incentives and improved security measures boosting investor confidence [8]. However, geopolitical risks—such as insurgency, terrorism, and farmer-herder conflicts—remain persistent. A 2023 study found that such events contribute to energy inflation and price volatility, particularly in oil-dependent economies like Nigeria [9]. While Shell and TotalEnergies have committed to responsible development, environmental concerns like gas flaring and oil spills threaten long-term sustainability [10].

Financial Implications and Investor Considerations

The financial stakes are significant. TotalEnergies’ $510 million stake sale provides immediate liquidity, while Shell’s $5 billion investment in Bonga North signals long-term commitment. Both projects are expected to drive EBITDA growth, though high CAPEX may strain near-term free cash flow [11]. For investors, the appeal lies in Nigeria’s strategic role in global energy markets. With oil prices supported by low global stockpiles and strong demand from emerging markets, Shell’s 4.1% and TotalEnergies’ 3.8% dividend yields offer attractive income potential [12].

Yet risks persist. Project delays, security incidents, and environmental liabilities could erode returns. For instance, Nigeria’s history of oil theft and infrastructure sabotage raises concerns about operational reliability [13]. Additionally, global sustainability trends may pressure companies to accelerate decarbonization, complicating the economics of deepwater projects [14].

Conclusion: A Calculated Bet on Deepwater Resilience

TotalEnergies’ exit and Shell’s expansion in Nigeria’s deepwater sector represent a calculated bet on the region’s long-term potential. While regulatory reforms and strategic investments mitigate some risks, investors must weigh the geopolitical and environmental challenges against the sector’s profitability. For energy firms, these moves underscore the importance of balancing short-term liquidity with long-term resilience in an increasingly volatile energy landscape.

Source:
[1] TotalEnergies offloading stake in Nigerian deepwater field to Shell for $510m [https://www.offshore-energy.biz/totalenergies-offloading-stake-in-nigerian-deepwater-field-to-shell-for-510m/]
[2] Shell Acquires Bonga Field Stake Offshore Nigeria From TotalEnergies [https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/shell-acquires-bonga-field-stake-offshore-nigeria-totalenergies]
[3] TotalEnergies' Bonga Sale: A Strategic Pivot to High-Margin, Low-Emission Assets in West Africa [https://www.ainvest.com/news/totalenergies-bonga-sale-strategic-pivot-high-margin-emission-assets-west-africa-2505/]
[4] Nigeria: TotalEnergies Divests its Non-Operated Interest in Bonga Field [https://totalenergies.com/news/press-releases/nigeria-totalenergies-divests-its-non-operated-interest-bonga-field]
[5] Shell and TotalEnergies Boosting Oil and Gas Output in Nigeria—A Global Trend With Financial Implications [https://energynewsbeat.co/shell-and-totalenergies-boosting-oil-and-gas-output-in-nigeria-a-global-trend-with-financial-implications/]
[6] Nigerian shift back to deepwater oil raises environmental concerns [https://gasoutlook.com/analysis/nigerian-shift-back-to-deepwater-oil-raises-environmental-concerns/]
[7] Shell to increase interest in Nigeria's deep-water Bonga field [https://www.shell.com/news-and-insights/newsroom/news-and-media-releases/2025/shell-to-increase-interest-in-nigerias-deep-water-bonga-field.html]
[8] Geopolitical Risk and Its Effect on Nigeria's Energy Inflation [https://erl.scholasticahq.com/article/127521-geopolitical-risk-and-its-effect-on-nigeria-s-energy-inflation]
[9] Nigeria Country Report - Geopolitical Risk [https://infortal.com/solutions/global-risk-intelligence/geopolitical-risk/country-risk/nigeria-country-report/]
[10] TotalEnergies' Nigerian Stake Sale to Shell: A Strategic Reset for Oil Majors in the Transitional Era [https://www.ainvest.com/news/totalenergies-nigerian-stake-sale-shell-strategic-reset-oil-majors-transitional-era-2505/]
[11] Shell and TotalEnergies Boosting Oil and Gas Output in Nigeria—A Global Trend With Financial Implications [https://energynewsbeat.co/shell-and-totalenergies-boosting-oil-and-gas-output-in-nigeria-a-global-trend-with-financial-implications/]
[12] INTERVIEW: After 'home truths', Nigeria finally turning tide on oil output, investment – presidential advisor [https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/030525-interview-after-home-truths-nigeria-finally-turning-tide-on-oil-output-investment-presidential-advisor]
[13] Oil Market Report - June 2025 [https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-june-2025]
[14] Nigerian shift back to deepwater oil raises environmental concerns [https://gasoutlook.com/analysis/nigerian-shift-back-to-deepwater-oil-raises-environmental-concerns/]