The Strategic Case for Investing in China's AI-Driven Equities in 2026

The global AI revolution is accelerating, and China stands at the forefront of this transformation. Goldman Sachs has positioned itself as a vocal advocate for China's AI-driven equities, forecasting a 20% gain for the MSCI China Index and a 12% rise in the CSI 300 Index by 2026. This optimism is rooted in three pillars: AI adoption, policy tailwinds, and earnings growth. For investors, the implications are clear: China's AI sector is not just a speculative play but a structural opportunity with institutional backing.

Goldman Sachs' Macro Outlook: AI as the Catalyst

Goldman Sachs' bullish stance hinges on the transformative potential of AI across industries. The bank estimates that AI deployment could drive corporate earnings growth of up to 14% in 2026, with internet and hardware firms leading the charge due to monetization from AI tools and capital spending. This aligns with broader global trends, as the firm projects 11% returns for global equities over the next 12 months, driven by productivity gains and central bank easing. For China, the combination of domestic AI innovation and export-oriented strategies-such as the push to globalize AI-enabled services- creates a dual engine of growth.

Policy support further amplifies this narrative. Beijing's focus on reducing over-competition in key sectors, coupled with targeted subsidies for AI infrastructure, has created a fertile environment for capital allocation. As Goldman notes, these measures are "reducing drag on growth" and enabling firms to scale efficiently.

VNET Group: A Case Study in AI-Driven Infrastructure

While macro trends are compelling, the real opportunity lies in firms like VNET Group, which exemplifies the intersection of AI demand and infrastructure innovation. VNET's Hyperscale 2.0 initiative, launched in 2025, aims to expand its green computing capacity to 10 gigawatts by 2026, with a focus on AI-ready data centers. This aligns directly with Goldman Sachs' thesis that AI infrastructure will be a key driver of returns in China's equity markets.

VNET's strategic positioning is underscored by its rapid expansion in Tier 1 Chinese cities like Shanghai and Beijing, where demand for low-latency, high-capacity data centers is surging. Its modular construction approach has slashed build times, enabling faster deployment of AI infrastructure-a critical advantage as enterprises and governments race to adopt large language models. Financially, the company has turned a corner: after a RMB 2.6 billion loss in 2023, it posted a RMB 248 million profit in 2024, driven by a 82.7% year-over-year surge in wholesale IDC revenue in Q3 2025.

The company's growth trajectory is equally impressive. Wholesale data center capacity in service has doubled from 358MW to 783MW in a year, with an additional 306MW under construction. This expansion has translated into margin expansion, with adjusted EBITDA reaching 29.4% in Q3 2025. Analysts are taking notice: Bank of America recently raised its price target for VNET, signaling growing institutional confidence in its long-term potential.

The Competitive Edge in AI-Driven Data Centers

VNET's success is not accidental but a product of strategic differentiation. Its focus on high-margin wholesale services-versus retail offerings-has allowed it to capitalize on the surging demand from hyperscalers and enterprises. For context, wholesale IDC revenue grew 82.7% year-over-year in Q3 2025, while retail LLM deployment revenue surged 309% in just two months. This shift toward wholesale services reflects a broader industry trend: as AI workloads become more intensive, companies are prioritizing scalable, cost-effective infrastructure over fragmented retail solutions.

Moreover, VNET's joint ventures and modular construction model have reduced operational bottlenecks, enabling faster deployment cycles. This agility is critical in a market where time-to-market can determine competitive advantage. With a target of 25% annual wholesale capacity growth over the next decade, VNET is well-positioned to benefit from both private-sector AI adoption and government-led initiatives such as China's "East Data, West Computing" project.

Conclusion: A Convergence of Macro and Micro Forces

Goldman Sachs' bullish outlook for China's AI equities is not a standalone prediction but a reflection of structural shifts in technology, policy, and capital allocation. For investors, the key is to identify firms that are both beneficiaries of these trends and drivers of innovation. VNET Group exemplifies this dual role: its infrastructure is enabling AI adoption while its financial performance validates the sector's potential.

As 2026 approaches, the strategic case for investing in China's AI-driven equities becomes increasingly compelling. With earnings growth, policy tailwinds, and companies like VNET leading the charge, the sector offers a rare combination of macro momentum and micro-level execution. For those willing to navigate the complexities of China's market, the rewards could be substantial.