Stocks Slip at the Open as Volatility Jumps and Cyber Monday Kicks Off With Cautious Consumers

Why so many Americans are falling behind 👇

U.S. stocks opened lower Monday as investors returned from the holiday weekend to a burst of global rate jitters and a Cyber Monday marked by unusually tactical consumer spending. The Dow slipped 273 points, or 0.57%, to 47,443.3, while the S&P 500 fell 0.62% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.81%. Small-caps led the retreat, with the Russell 2000 off 1.17%, underscoring the market’s sharpening risk-off tone. The VIX jumped 10.46% to 18.06, its highest early-morning print in several weeks.

The soft open followed a global bond selloff sparked overnight after Japanese government bond yields surged to their highest level since 2008 on expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike. Bloomberg reported that move lifted sovereign yields worldwide, pushing the U.S. 10-year Treasury to 4.04%. Higher rates pressured growth and tech shares, even as investors digested upbeat long-term AI forecasts from Wall Street.

Nowhere is that optimism more visible than in Wedbush’s newly released 2026 Tech and AI Revolution Outlook, which argues that markets are “only in Year 3 of a 10-year AI cycle” and heading toward another year of double-digit tech gains. “This is NOT an AI Bubble…we have not even seen the consumer AI Revolution start yet…this tech cap-ex supercycle is driving this 4th Industrial Revolution into the next few years,” said Dan Ives, Wedbush Managing Director and Analyst.

Wedbush highlights that less than 5% of U.S. enterprises have deployed AI at scale, even as Big Tech’s AI capex is expected to reach $550–$600 billion next year. Deal flow tracked by the firm has accelerated ~20% over the past month, with cloud vendors struggling to keep up with infrastructure demand. The report also points to thawing U.S.–China relations—following autumn Trump–Xi meetings—as a stabilizing force for big-cap tech heading into 2026.

But Monday’s session is being driven less by long-term AI optimism and more by immediate questions about the U.S. consumer. Early data from the Black Friday weekend shows solid but heavily discount-dependent spending. Adobe Analytics reported $11.8 billion in online Black Friday purchases, up 9.1% from last year, while Mastercard SpendingPulse measured 4.1% growth in total retail sales excluding autos.

Beneath the headline numbers, shoppers showed unmistakable signs of caution. Adobe noted that retailers leaned aggressively into markdowns, driving traffic but compressing margins. Consumers, Mastercard observed, have become “incredibly savvy” timing purchases, shifting to value-centric chains, and increasingly using Buy-Now-Pay-Later tools. Adobe expects $20.2 billion of BNPL spending this holiday season, up 11% from 2024.

The split is increasingly K-shaped: higher-income households remain supported by equity and housing wealth, while lower-income consumers are stretching dollars and deferring discretionary purchases. That dynamic benefited Walmart, TJX, Gap, and Amazon, along with merchants on Shopify’s platform. Target and Bath & Body Works entered the weekend on weaker footing, reflecting pressure among mid-income shoppers.

Cyber Monday historically generates the largest single-day online spend of the season. Adobe’s 2024 benchmark was $13.3 billion, and retailers will be watching closely whether 2025 can match or exceed that level. With inflation still near 3%, Mastercard cautioned that its 4.1% spending growth implies real gains closer to 1%, underscoring the fragility beneath the consumer’s headline resilience.

For markets, Monday’s early weakness reflects the push-pull between robust long-term AI enthusiasm and a macro backdrop complicated by global rate shifts and a selectively frugal U.S. consumer. Investors will be watching Cyber Monday results for confirmation that holiday spending remains “functional,” not merely “fragile,” as the final month of 2025 approaches.