Stocks Rise for Fourth Straight Day, Notch Weekly Gains

The stock market’s upward momentum in late April 2025 has been nothing short of a relief rally, with major indices clawing back losses amid shifting geopolitical winds and corporate optimism. After three consecutive days of gains, the S&P 500 exited correction territory, while the Dow and Nasdaq notched weekly wins, buoyed by hopes of tariff relief and robust earnings. Yet beneath the surface, the market’s fragility persists—a reminder that this recovery is as much about timing as it is about fundamentals.

Market Drivers: Tariff Talk and Earnings Power
The week’s rally was anchored by two key forces: speculation that U.S.-China trade tensions might ease and a wave of positive corporate earnings. Investors priced in the possibility that President Trump’s administration might scale back the punitive 145% tariffs on Chinese imports, a move that could alleviate pressure on supply chains and corporate margins. Meanwhile, companies like Texas Instruments (TXN) and ServiceNow (NOW) delivered earnings surprises, sending their shares soaring premarket—TXN jumped 10% after reporting stronger-than-expected sales in automotive and industrial markets.

But not all sectors shared in the euphoria. Intel (INTC), despite posting solid quarterly results, fell 8% after warning of softer demand ahead, underscoring the uneven landscape. “This isn’t a uniform recovery,” noted one trader. “Earnings are the new currency, and only companies with durable growth narratives can sustain gains.”

Sector Spotlight: Tech’s Mixed Signals
Technology stocks were both the engine and the weak link in the rally. Alphabet (GOOGL) rose 3% after its earnings beat, while chipmakers like On Semiconductor and Microchip Technology surged over 5%, bolstering the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), which climbed 2.5% on the week.

Yet the sector’s gains were uneven. Apple (AAPL) and Meta Platforms (META) lagged, with investors rotating into industrials and semiconductors. Airlines, however, faced headwinds: Southwest Airlines’ shares dropped 4% after it cut capacity and abandoned annual guidance, citing macroeconomic uncertainty.

External Factors: Dollar, Debt, and Data
While equities rallied, Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar offered a more cautious picture. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.29%, reflecting investor bets on slower rate hikes, while the dollar index fell to 99.40—a multi-year low—before rebounding slightly. Commodities also swung: gold fell to $3,280 after touching $3,500 earlier in the week, while crude oil settled at $62.35. Bitcoin, ever-volatile, flirted with $94,500, a sign of risk-on sentiment.

The Fragile Optimism: Risks Ahead
The market’s gains, while welcome, remain vulnerable to external shocks. The April jobs report and inflation data loom large, as does the unresolved tariff dispute with China. “This rally is hanging on a thread of hope,” said one strategist. “If tariffs stay high or earnings miss, we could see a sharp reversal.”

The data underscores the tension. While the S&P 500’s 3.8% year-to-date gain is encouraging, its weekly swings—up 1.5%—are a reminder of volatility. The SMH’s 2.5% rise highlights semiconductor optimism, but Intel’s stumble shows how quickly sentiment can shift.

Conclusion: Caution Amid the Rally
The April 2025 gains reflect a market caught between hope and hesitation. Positive earnings and tariff optimism have fueled a meaningful rebound, but the path forward is littered with risks—from trade wars to interest rates. Investors should focus on companies with strong balance sheets and secular tailwinds, like those in semiconductors and industrials, while remaining wary of sectors reliant on discretionary spending.

The numbers tell the story: the S&P 500’s 3.8% YTD gain and the SMH’s 2.5% weekly rise suggest resilience, but Intel’s 8% drop on weak guidance and Southwest’s 4% decline on macro fears highlight vulnerabilities. For now, the rally holds—but without concrete progress on tariffs and robust economic data, this recovery may prove fleeting.

In such an environment, patience and diversification remain the watchwords. The market’s gains are real, but so are its limits.