Stocks Rise Ahead of Big Tech Results and a Pivotal Fed Call

At the opening bell, stocks leaned higher as Wall Street braced for after-the-bell tech earnings and an afternoon Fed decision. The Dow added about 138 points (0.29%) to ~47,844, the S&P 500 rose ~20 points (0.28%) to ~6,910, and the Nasdaq gained ~153 points (0.64%) to ~23,980, while the small-cap Russell 2000 slipped 0.29% to ~248. In commodities, WTI crude hovered near $60 (-0.10%) and gold firmed around $4,031 (+1.19%) as traders positioned for a widely expected quarter-point rate cut and guidance on the path of policy into year-end.

With the FOMC set to deliver its statement this afternoon, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%—the first sub-4% setting since 2022. The CME FedWatch tool indicates futures assigning a 98% probability. The next debate is whether officials lean into a December follow-up cut (96% odds) and sketch an endgame for quantitative tightening, signaling liquidity support without overt QE as banks warn against a 2019-style repo squeeze. Policymakers must communicate amid a shutdown-driven data blackout and a “no-hire, no-fire” labor backdrop; subtle statement tweaks may emphasize employment risks to preserve dovish flexibility. Chair Jerome Powell, navigating what he called “blurred vision” in his Oct. 15 remarks, must balance that with “careful normalization.”

Travel stocks offered a bright spot before the opening bell. Booking Holdings reported a muscular quarter, $9.0 billion in revenue, up 13% from a year earlier, and $99.50 in adjusted EPS, underpinned by 14% growth in gross bookings to $49.7 billion and steady demand across regions. According to the company's results summary, management guided fourth-quarter revenue growth of 10% to 12% and flagged $1.4 billion in free cash flow alongside continued investment in AI and loyalty.

Nvidia’s GTC Washington is adding fuel to the AI fire. Wedbush highlighted the Grace Blackwell NVL72 platform and a pipeline that management says supports roughly $500 billion of Blackwell and Rubin revenue through 2026, with cloud titans expected to push AI capital outlays to $443 billion by 2025 and $632 billion by 2027. The firm also pointed to a Department of Energy partnership on seven AI supercomputers and a strategic stake in Nokia to collaborate on 6G. As Wedbush’s Daniel Ives put it: “Despite rising competition from other chipmakers like AMD and QCOM, Nvidia's chips remain the new oil or gold in this world for the tech ecosystem as there is only one chip in the world fueling this AI Revolution...and it's Nvidia.”

After today's closing bell, attention turns to the megacaps. At Microsoft, CFRA said OpenAI’s conversion to a public-benefit corporation clarifies governance, values Microsoft’s 27% stake at $135 billion, extends IP rights through 2032, and secures $250 billion in Azure revenue commitments—an endorsement of the software giant’s long-term AI positioning. “We believe this balanced approach strengthens MSFT's AI positioning by securing long-term technology access while reducing dependency risks through diversified partnerships,” wrote CFRA’s Angelo Zino, adding that Azure’s commitments should provide “predictable revenue growth” as competition intensifies.

Alphabet’s report will test whether its AI investments, from the Gemini 3 model to an “agentic” Chrome and continued Cloud momentum, can offset rising capital needs. Wall Street is looking for about $99.9 billion in revenue and $2.26 in adjusted EPS, with capex in focus after a lifted 2025 outlook and fresh projections for 2026. Meta, meanwhile, remains a bellwether for the AI economy as it scales data center spending via a $27 billion Blue Owl venture and a 2025 budget of $66 billion to $72 billion—while navigating regulatory scrutiny.