Why Value Stocks Are Poised to Outperform Growth in 2026

The investment landscape is on the cusp of a significant shift. After a decade of dominance by growth stocks-particularly large-cap technology names-value equities are reemerging as compelling opportunities. This reversal is not a fleeting trend but a structural realignment driven by earnings fundamentals, valuation dynamics, and macroeconomic forces. As 2026 unfolds, investors would be wise to recalibrate their portfolios to capitalize on this shift.

The Rebound of Value Indices: A Case for IWD

The iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) has been a bellwether for the value segment's resurgence. In 2025, IWD delivered a total return of 15%, the highest in three years, building on a 14.18% return in 2024. This marks a stark turnaround from the 7.74% decline in 2022, reflecting a broader recovery in value stocks. Over the trailing 12 months as of 2026, IWD has returned 8.72%, with a 5-year total return of 82.57%. These figures underscore the resilience of value equities, particularly in a market environment where falling interest rates and regulatory tailwinds are amplifying their appeal.

The ETF's valuation metrics further reinforce its attractiveness. IWD constituents trade at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of less than 21 times, significantly below the 41 times earnings for growth stocks. This gap, historically a precursor to value outperformance, suggests that value stocks are undervalued relative to their fundamentals. As the Federal Reserve normalizes monetary policy and investors seek higher yields, the lower volatility and stronger cash flow generation of value stocks are likely to drive further rotation.

Earnings Fundamentals: The Case for Value

The underperformance of growth stocks in recent years has been driven by a disconnect between lofty valuations and earnings growth. Vanguard's 2026 outlook highlights this imbalance, noting that U.S. growth stocks-dominated by megacap technology firms-face "elevated expectations and competitive pressures" that could hinder returns. In contrast, value stocks, as represented by IWD, have demonstrated more consistent earnings growth. For instance, the Russell 1000 Value Index has outperformed its growth counterpart in 2025, supported by stronger revenue growth in sectors like industrials, energy, and financials.

Van Eck's analysis reinforces this narrative. The firm notes that ex-U.S. value equities outperformed the S&P 500 by 21% in 2025, driven by weaker U.S. dollar dynamics and more cyclical earnings leverage. This global trend suggests that value stocks are not only rebounding in the U.S. but also gaining traction in international markets, where valuations are even more attractive.

Valuation Contrasts: The Overhang on Growth

The valuation gap between growth and value stocks has widened to historic levels. Vanguard's Capital Markets Model (VCMM) projects that U.S. growth stocks, particularly in the information technology sector, will struggle to meet expectations due to "already-high earnings expectations and the risk of creative destruction from new entrants". The firm's data shows that the Vanguard Growth ETF has delivered a 395% total return over the past decade, compared to less than half that for the Value ETF. However, this outperformance came at a cost: growth stocks now trade at valuations that assume perpetual earnings growth, a scenario increasingly at odds with reality.

Thrivent's 2026 outlook echoes this caution. The firm emphasizes that AI-driven companies must demonstrate "strong earnings growth to justify their current high valuations". With the labor market softening and consumer spending showing signs of fatigue, the pressure on growth stocks to deliver on promises is intensifying. This creates a fertile environment for value stocks, which are better positioned to benefit from falling interest rates and a shift toward income-generating assets.

Strategic Shifts: Embracing Value and Ex-U.S. Equities

The case for value is further strengthened by the broader macroeconomic context. Vanguard projects that U.S. value-oriented equities and non-U.S. developed-market equities will offer stronger risk-return profiles over the next 5–10 years, with expected annualized returns of 4.0%–5.0% and 4.9%–6.9%, respectively. This aligns with Van Eck's assertion that investors should diversify beyond concentrated U.S. growth sectors into ex-U.S. value equities, which offer cheaper valuations and more cyclical earnings leverage.

Thrivent's analysis adds another layer to this argument. The firm highlights that global markets, particularly in Asia, are benefiting from improved U.S. relations and increased AI investment, creating opportunities for value stocks in emerging economies. This diversification is critical in an era of geopolitical uncertainty and stagflationary risks, where overexposure to U.S. growth stocks could amplify portfolio volatility.

Conclusion

The reemergence of value stocks is not a speculative bet but a response to shifting fundamentals. With earnings growth accelerating, valuations favoring value, and macroeconomic conditions aligning with their strengths, value equities-and specifically indices like IWD-are poised to outperform growth in 2026. Investors who recognize this inflection point and rebalance their portfolios toward value and ex-U.S. equities will be well-positioned to navigate the uncertainties ahead.