US Stocks Eye Lower Open; Walmart Earnings in Focus

US stock futures are pointing to a lower open on Monday, following two days of gains, as investors digest the latest economic data and await key earnings reports, including Walmart's. The retail giant is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings before the opening bell, with analysts expecting rising sales and profits.



Walmart is expected to report $180.3 billion in revenue for the quarter, up nearly 4% year-over-year, along with adjusted earnings per share of 64 cents, up 7% from the year-ago quarter. If the company reports in line with these estimates, it would mark the first time that Walmart's quarterly revenue is lower than Amazon's.

Most analysts covering Walmart have a "buy" or equivalent rating for the retailer's stock, but their average price target suggests little upside from Wednesday's closing price near record highs. Some analysts have recently raised their price targets, citing expectations of market share gains and topping analysts' estimates. Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank analysts lifted their targets to $115, while JPMorgan and Bank of America raised theirs to $112 and $120, respectively.



A number of analysts have said recently that they expect Walmart to beat fourth-quarter estimates but think the retailer's forecasts for the next fiscal year will be conservative. Walmart is likely to stick to its past trend of being conservative in its initial projections for fiscal 2026, but analysts expect the retail giant's share price gains to continue this year.

Investors are trying to parse whether softer retail sales in January were a blip or a bigger warning sign. As Walmart is the top grocer in the U.S., investors often view it as a barometer of consumer health. The company will report its holiday-season results and is expected to give a forecast for the year ahead. Its leaders may also preview how they see the economic backdrop in the U.S. and weigh in on the potential effect of federal policy decisions, such as tariffs.



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Here's what Wall Street expects for the big-box retailer's fiscal fourth quarter, according to a survey of analysts by LSEG:
Earnings per share: 64 cents
Revenue: $180.01 billion
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Retail sales for January came in weaker than expected, setting off alarm bells for some investors. The metric dropped 0.9% for the month, which was below the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.2% decline. Restaurant chains, including Restaurant Brands' Burger King and Popeyes, also had weak trends in January even though they said sales improved in the fourth quarter.

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Yet, those restaurants and some retail experts have blamed short-term factors for the drop, including winter storms, consumers taking a break after splurging over the holidays and contending with damage and disruption from the Los Angeles wildfires. Holiday data came in strong across the retail industry, as sales rose 3.8% year over year to total $964.4 billion in November and December, according to the National Retail Federation. The trend reflected a return to more typical pre-pandemic gains. Average sales growth during the holiday season was 3.6% from 2010 to 2019, according to NRF data, but shot up during the Covid-19 pandemic.

As Walmart is set to report earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 on Thursday morning, investors are trying to parse whether softer retail sales in January were a blip or a bigger warning sign. The retail giant is expected to report $180.3 billion in revenue for the quarter, up nearly 4% year-over-year, along with adjusted earnings per share of 64 cents, up 7% from the year-ago quarter. If Walmart reports in line with these estimates, it could mark the first time that Walmart's quarterly revenue is lower than Amazon's, which reported $187.8 billion earlier this month.

Walmart's stock price has gained nearly 80% over the past 12 months, at $104 Wednesday, not far from last Thursday's record close at $105.05. Shares closed on Wednesday at $104.00, up about 15% so far this year and outpacing the approximately 4% gains of the S&P 500 during the same period.