Stocks Close Higher as Investors Brace for Inflation Data, Gold Inches Up, Oil Slips

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 206.97 points, or 0.47%, to close at 44,175.6. The Nasdaq Composite gained 207.32 points, or 0.98%, ending at 21,450.0, while the S&P 500 added 49.45 points, or 0.78%, to finish at 6,389.45. Market breadth favored advancers, with over 55% of NYSE-listed stocks rising on the day.

Gains were broad-based, with major indexes buoyed by strength in growth and technology shares. The upbeat session came despite growing caution over the inflation outlook. The July CPI reading, due Tuesday, is expected to show core consumer prices rising 0.3% from the prior month, pushing the annual core rate to 3.0%, according to consensus estimates. That would mark the first move above 3% since February and could test the Fed’s narrative that recent price pressures are temporary.

Traders are especially focused on whether tariffs and goods inflation will continue to build. Reciprocal tariffs averaging roughly 20% took effect August 7, though July’s CPI will reflect earlier rounds that generated nearly $30 billion in collections last month. A hotter-than-expected reading could prompt markets to scale back expectations for rate cuts at the Fed’s September meeting, potentially lifting Treasury yields and pressuring equities.

Beyond equities, gold futures for December delivery edged up $2.10, or 0.06%, to $3,455.80, benefiting from its status as an inflation hedge. Prices swung in early trading but settled into a narrow range by late afternoon. Crude oil futures for September delivery slipped $0.28, or 0.44%, to $63.60, weighed down by mid-session selling after an earlier rebound attempt fizzled.

The policy backdrop is adding another layer of complexity for investors. President Donald Trump on Thursday signed an executive order allowing 401(k) participants to invest in alternative assets, including private equity, real estate, and cryptocurrencies. While the rule changes will take time to implement, the move could eventually channel a portion of the nation’s $8.7 trillion in retirement savings toward less traditional markets, potentially affecting capital flows across asset classes.

Looking ahead, next week’s economic calendar is heavy with inflation-related data, including the Producer Price Index and import/export price indexes, as well as preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment. But all eyes remain on Tuesday’s CPI, widely seen as a make-or-break moment for the near-term market narrative. A soft print could keep September rate cuts in play; a strong one might force a reassessment.

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