The Estee Lauder

Estée Lauder Stock Drops 20% Despite Beating Expectations and Raising Outlook

Estee Lauder Q2 Revenue Beats Estimates, but Shares Slide on Tariff Concerns

雅诗兰黛

Estee Lauder: JP Morgan lowers PT to $121, maintains Overweight rating.

Estee Lauder Raises FY26 Earnings Outlook Despite $100M Tariff Impact

Estée Lauder Q2 Sales Rise 6% to $4.2B, Stock Drops 20% Despite Strong Earnings

Catalyst<ul> <li>Recent technical signals such as the MACD Death Cross and Bullish Engulfing indicate strong bullish momentum for EL.</li> <li>Most analysts rate EL Buy or Strong Buy, showing broad institutional optimism despite a recent spread in ratings.</li> <li>The company maintains strong cash reserves and asset positions relative to its market value.</li></ul>Risk<ul> <li>Market expectations for EL tend to be pessimistic, with analysts expressing valuation concerns despite bullish technical signals.</li> <li>Fundamental factors such as ROA and net profit margin show negative trends, indicating potential profitability issues.</li></ul>

Key Factors

Estee Lauder (EL) reported Q2 net sales of $4.2 billion, up 6% year-over-year, with organic sales growth of 4% driven by strong performance in Mainland China. The company raised its FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $2.05-$2.25 and expects organic net sales growth of 1%-3% despite a projected $100 million tariff impact on profitability. On February 5, 2026, EL shares plummeted 19.19% due to a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern and a pre-market drop of 6.51% after the company highlighted $100 million in tariff-related profit headwinds for the second half of fiscal 2026. Estee Lauder’s stock closed at $96.66 on February 5, 2026, below the 50-day moving average, with technical indicators like MACD and KDJ signaling bearish momentum. The company expects $100 million in full-year tariff headwinds from Switzerland, Canada, China, Mexico, the EU, and Japan, but plans to offset half through trade programs and supply chain optimization.

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