Alcoa

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Alcoa shares surge 5.64% after-hours as Q4 adjusted earnings exceed estimates at $1.26, driven by higher revenue and net income.

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Alcoa Q4 revenue up 15% YoY to $3,449 mln, FY25 revenue up 8% YoY to $12,831 mln.

Catalyst<ul> <li>Bullish RSI Overbought signals have occurred multiple times in early January 2026 pointing to potential rebound momentum for AA.</li></ul>Risk<ul> <li>Fund flow analysis shows large and extra-large order inflow ratios are below 50% indicating potential outflows from significant investors.</li> <li>Analyst ratings for AA show a split between Neutral and Sell with no consensus on a positive outlook.</li></ul>

Key Factors

Alcoa (AA) reported Q4 2025 adjusted earnings of $1.26 per share, exceeding the $0.93 estimate, driven by higher aluminum prices and operational efficiency. Alcoa (AA) shares surged 5.64% in after-hours trading following the Q4 earnings beat and a 15% sequential revenue increase to $3.4 billion. Alcoa (AA) shares fell 5.86% intraday after JPMorgan downgraded the stock to Underweight, citing valuation risks and expected 2026 aluminum price declines.

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