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U.S. Private Hiring Unexpectedly Falls in November, ADP Estimates

Markets Rally on Weak Jobs Data, Fed Rate Cut Hopes

Asian Markets Open Mixed as US Jobs Data Fuels Rate-Cut Hopes

US Private Sector Loses Jobs in November: Implications for December Rate Cut

ADP Private Employment Down 32,000 in November, Annual Pay Increases 4.4%

Catalyst<ul> <li>Small, Medium, and Extra-large order size fund flows show positive inflow trends, which may indicate growing institutional confidence in ADP.</li></ul>Risk<ul> <li>Technical indicators show bearish signals are dominant, with three negative signals (Bearish Engulfing, WR Oversold, and RSI Oversold) in recent days.</li> <li>All three recent analyst ratings for ADP are "Sell," reflecting strong pessimism among analysts regarding the stock's near-term outlook.</li></ul>

Key Factors

ADP reported a 32,000 drop in U.S. private-sector jobs in November 2025, the largest decline since March 2023. Small businesses accounted for 120,000 of the job losses, the worst drawdown since March 2023. ADP's report intensified speculation of a Federal Reserve rate cut and influenced global equity and bond markets. ADP's stock gained 0.52% on December 2, 2025, amid anticipation for the December employment report. ADP raised its quarterly dividend by 10% to $1.70 per share, extending its 51-year consecutive increase streak.

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