Stock Market Ready for a Real Breakout as a Major Earnings Week Approaches and Prepare for a Gold Shuffle

The stock market has shown resilience following Trump's fresh tariff threats and a swift TACO reversal related to Greenland. That largely aligned with our view last week, as the President tends to use tariffs as a negotiation tool rather than a path toward real escalation. The political noise once again created a buy the dip window, while the market's technical strength remained intact. What matters far more now is the earnings calendar ahead. With Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Apple, and several other heavyweights reporting this week, attention is shifting away from headlines and back toward fundamentals. While many investors may hesitate to make aggressive bets ahead of such a dense earnings slate, the setup suggests markets should remain prepared for renewed highs and a continuation of bullish momentum once uncertainty clears. Meanwhile, the bull case for gold may pause, raising the question of how to position more smartly.

From a technical perspective, the picture remains constructive. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 absorbed last week's pullback and staged a rebound that formed another higher low. When combined with the earlier higher high, this structure reinforces that the broader bullish trend remains intact. Short term momentum has also improved, with the MA(3) breaking above the MA(7,10), signaling that near term buyers are regaining control. For the Nasdaq 100 specifically, the rebound has carried the index back toward a familiar resistance zone. This brings the core question back into focus. Will this be the long awaited breakout, or does it evolve into another triple top scenario. That uncertainty places even greater importance on this week's technology earnings, which are likely to act as the primary catalyst for the next directional move.

Looking at positioning among mega cap technology names, caution is already well reflected in prices. Microsoft remains roughly 15% below its October peak, while Meta is down 12%. Tesla and Apple are also sitting about 20% off their highs. This pullback across leadership stocks suggests expectations have already been tempered, which may serve as a buffer against disappointment. At the same time, the Nasdaq 100 is hovering near its highs despite these heavyweight names still trading under pressure. If earnings deliver even modest upside surprises and management commentary reinforces confidence around artificial intelligence and enterprise spending, follow through from these names could be enough to push the index decisively higher. Given a robust economy and continued momentum in AI development, large technology firms remain among the first beneficiaries of these trends. A broad earnings collapse appears far less likely than a scenario where results are solid enough to reignite confidence.

Crypto, however, continues to be the outlier in this cycle. While equities and gold have pushed toward new highs, Bitcoin remains stuck near the 88,000 level, having slipped below the 90,000 psychological mark and still far from the 100K threshold that typically draws stronger participation. One growing consensus is that enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and gold's standout performance has siphoned attention away from crypto, which once appealed as both a speculative vehicle and a hedge against inflation or uncertainty. The massive liquidation wave last October, estimated around 19 billion dollars, along with rising activity in prediction markets, has also caused many former believers to reassess exposure. As crypto increasingly decouples from traditional risk assets during equity rallies, it finds itself in a less favorable position relative to stocks and commodities.

Gold, meanwhile, is sending more nuanced signals. From a fundamental standpoint, the longer term thesis remains intact. Central banks continue to favor gold over the dollar, particularly amid uncertainty tied to Trump's policies. However, from a technical angle, caution is warranted. The recent surge pushed the RSI on gold futures to around 92, a level last seen in late December and followed by a sharp selloff. Such extreme readings often reflect overheated sentiment rather than sustainable momentum. In this environment, it may be prudent to trim exposure or consider tactical shorts while preparing to buy on a meaningful pullback. Confidence in gold has not disappeared, and any sizable correction could quickly attract renewed demand. As long as crypto fails to regain traction and central banks continue to diversify reserves away from the dollar, gold's role as a store of value remains secure.

In conclusion, the market appears to be transitioning from headline driven volatility back toward fundamentals and technical structure. Equity markets have absorbed political noise without breaking trend, and earnings now hold the key to unlocking another upside leg. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 remain technically sound, with mega cap technology stocks positioned to lead if results and guidance align with expectations. Crypto continues to lag and demands patience, while gold calls for smarter positioning after an extended run. Taken together, this environment favors selective risk taking rather than broad retreat. Investors who stay disciplined, respect technical levels, and respond to earnings rather than emotion are better positioned to leverage the next phase of this market cycle.