U.S. Stock Futures Edge Lower Ahead of Early Christmas Eve Close as Gold’s Structural Rally Dominates Macro Debate

What history tells us about bull markets after the 3-year mark 👇

U.S. equity futures traded modestly lower early Wednesday as markets prepared for a shortened Christmas Eve session, with trading on the New York Stock Exchange scheduled to end at 1 p.m. Eastern. At 8:40 a.m. ET, S&P 500 futures slipped 2.00 points, or 0.03%, to 6,959.00, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 25 points, or 0.05%, to 48,737. Nasdaq futures were little changed, down 2.25 points, or 0.01%, at 25,810.

The muted moves reflected thin holiday liquidity rather than a decisive shift in investor sentiment. With many institutional desks lightly staffed, market participants appeared reluctant to initiate new risk positions ahead of year-end, particularly after a volatile December that has forced repeated reassessments of macro and asset-allocation assumptions.

One area drawing sustained attention, however, has been gold, whose roughly 70% rise in 2025 is increasingly being framed by banks and institutional analysts as evidence of a structural reordering in global portfolios rather than a short-term defensive trade.

According to J.P. Morgan Global Research, global gold exchange-traded funds attracted $5.2 billion of inflows in November alone, lifting total assets under management to a record $530 billion and holdings to 3,932 metric tons. Demand was strongest in Asia, with Chinese investors accounting for $2.2 billion of those inflows, while India recorded its sixth consecutive month of net purchases. Europe also turned positive after months of outflows, a shift analysts attributed to renewed equity-market volatility.

J.P. Morgan expects the trend to persist, forecasting roughly 250 tonnes of ETF inflows in 2026, alongside annual bar and coin demand exceeding 1,200 tonnes. The rebuilding of ETF inventories has tightened supply-demand balances, reinforcing gold’s appeal as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty.

Beyond traditional investment vehicles, gold is also being reshaped by financial innovation. The market for tokenized gold — digital tokens backed by physical bullion — has grown more than 200% year-to-date to $3.5 billion. HSBC has launched regulated retail gold tokens, facilitating more than 100,000 trades and $1 billion in transaction volume, highlighting growing institutional acceptance of blockchain-based precious-metal exposure.

Central banks remain the most powerful source of demand. Purchases totaled 53 metric tons in October, up 36% from September, bringing year-to-date buying to 254 tonnes. Poland, Kazakhstan and Brazil have been among the most active buyers, as emerging-market reserve managers seek to reduce reliance on dollar-denominated assets amid geopolitical tensions and concerns over reserve security.

The World Gold Council reported that total global demand reached 1,313 tonnes in the third quarter of 2025, driven primarily by ETF inflows and official-sector buying. J.P. Morgan projects central banks will continue to purchase roughly 190 tonnes per quarter in 2026, a pace it says could underpin prices even during periods of broader financial calm.

For equity investors navigating a quiet holiday session, the divergence is notable: while stock futures drift in narrow ranges, gold’s advance is increasingly viewed as a signal of deeper, longer-lasting changes in how capital is allocated in a more fragmented global financial system.