Stock Analysis | Waste Management Outlook - Technicals Weigh on Stock Despite Strong Fundamentals

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Waste Management's stock is currently down -3.07% amid bearish technical signals and mixed analyst ratings, suggesting caution for new investors.

News Highlights

1. Trump’s Tariff Policy and Market Uncertainty

Recent reports highlight the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, which have disrupted trade and shaken industries. While Waste Management isn’t directly tied to this sector, global economic uncertainty can dampen investor sentiment and affect waste disposal demand in the long term.

2. Ethereum and Solana ETF Developments

Though not directly relevant to Waste Management, REX Shares’ plans to launch Ethereum and Solana ETFs reflect a broader shift in regulatory clarity around crypto assets. This trend may indirectly affect capital allocation patterns, including how money is directed toward or away from more traditional sectors like utilities and waste management.

3. China’s Slowed Manufacturing Activity

China’s manufacturing sector contracted in May, although the decline slowed compared to April. While this has less direct relevance to Waste Management, global demand for industrial goods and services could be affected, potentially influencing waste generation and disposal patterns in the future.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts remain cautiously optimistic. The simple average rating is 3.80, while the performance-weighted rating is 5.34, indicating that higher-weighted analysts have more confidence in the stock’s potential. However, ratings are somewhat disparate, with a mix of "Strong Buy", "Buy", and "Neutral" calls in recent 20-day activity.

These ratings contradict the current price trend, which is down -3.07%. Analysts appear to be factoring in long-term fundamentals that are currently undervalued by the market.

Key Fundamental Factors:

• Gross profit margin: 39.86% (internal diagnostic score: 2)
• ROA: 1.59% (internal diagnostic score: 3)
• ROE: 7.90% (internal diagnostic score: 3)
• Profit-MV: -1.02 (internal diagnostic score: 1)
• Net income to revenue: 21.92% (internal diagnostic score: 1)
• Cash-UP: 34.64% (internal diagnostic score: 2)

Overall, Waste Management’s fundamentals remain solid, with strong margins and asset utilization, though recent performance scores suggest earnings relative to market capitalization may be lagging.

Money-Flow Trends

Waste Management is experiencing negative fund-flow trends across all investor categories, including retail, mid-cap, and institutional investors. The overall inflow ratio is 0.475, with large and extra-large investors showing the lowest inflow ratios at 0.486 and 0.461, respectively.

This suggests that even though the fundamentals are strong, market sentiment is bearish. Large money managers and block investors are moving away, which could lead to further downward pressure in the near term.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, Waste Management is in a weak position. The technical score is 3.27, indicating it's best to avoid the stock at this time. Here's what's happening:

• Williams %R (WR) Oversold: internal diagnostic score 3.54 – indicating a weak but slightly neutral bias toward a potential rebound.
• Marubozu White: internal diagnostic score 2.99 – suggesting bullish momentum is weak and may not last.

Recent Chart Patterns:

• 20250903: WR Oversold
• 20250825: WR Oversold
• 20250828: WR Oversold
• 20250905: WR Oversold
• 20250829: Marubozu White

This pattern of repeated oversold levels without clear follow-through signals suggests the stock is in a consolidation phase, and momentum is unclear.

Key Insight: The market is in a volatile state with a bearish bias (2 vs 0). Recent signals are limited, and the trend is weak overall. A strong reversal would need a significant event or earnings beat to trigger.

Conclusion

Waste Management’s fundamentals remain strong with decent margins and asset efficiency, but current technical indicators and fund-flow patterns point to a weak near-term outlook. Analysts are optimistic, but the market is bearish, creating a mismatch. Investors should consider waiting for a pull-back or clearer momentum signals before entering.