Stock Analysis | Walmart Outlook - Strong Technicals, Mixed Analysts, and a Cautious Market

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Walmart's technicals are strong with a bullish WR Oversold signal (internal diagnostic score of 8.15), but the stock has recently fallen -3.69% despite mixed analyst ratings and a neutral market outlook.

News Highlights

1. Costco's Earnings Loom

Costco Wholesale is set to report earnings on May 29. While not directly related to Walmart, the broader retail sector is closely watching. Analysts expect Costco to report earnings of $4.21 per share, which could influence investor sentiment in the retail space.

2. Institutional Buy of BJ’s Wholesale Stock

Steven Ortega, a board member of BJ’s Wholesale Club, executed a significant insider buy of $199,000 in company stock. While this is a small player relative to Walmart, it reflects confidence in the retail sector and may indirectly affect market sentiment toward Walmart.

3. Evercore ISI Group's Growth Strategy

Evercore ISI Group announced a $5 million revolving line of credit for Global Printing & Packaging to fuel strategic growth. While not directly related to Walmart, the infusion of capital into the supply chain sector could benefit retailers like Walmart in the long term.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Average Rating Score: The simple average of analyst ratings for Walmart is 4.31, which indicates a generally positive outlook.

Weighted Rating Score: Taking into account historical performance, the weighted average is 3.57, which is more neutral.

Rating Consistency: Analysts are somewhat divided, with a mix of “Strong Buy” and “Buy” recommendations, but their predictions don’t align well with the recent -3.69% price drop.

Key Fundamental Factors:

• ROE (Return on Equity): 11.38% – Internal diagnostic score: 8.71
• ROA (Return on Assets): 1.85% – Internal diagnostic score: 6.82
• GPOA (Gross Profit on Assets): 16.71% – Internal diagnostic score: 7.96
• NPM (Net Profit Margin): 2.78% – Internal diagnostic score: 7.22
• EBIT / Total Operating Revenue: 4.36% – Internal diagnostic score: 6.92
• Revenue-Market Value: 2.30x – Internal diagnostic score: 6.90

Overall, fundamentals suggest Walmart is generating decent returns on equity and assets, but margins are modest. The technicals are stronger, showing a clear divergence from fundamentals and the current price trend.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-Money Behavior: Institutional flows are negative across all size categories, with large and extra-large money inflow ratios below 50% (49.5% for large and 48.3% for extra-large). This suggests large investors are cautious or reducing positions.

Retail Activity: Retail investors are also showing mixed signals, with inflow ratios hovering near 50% (49.1% for small and 49.5% for medium). The block trend is also negative (48.6%), indicating institutional outflows.

Walmart appears to be in a consolidation phase with both retail and institutional investors hesitant to take large positions.

Key Technical Signals

Internal Diagnostic Score: The WR (Williams %R) Oversold indicator has an internal diagnostic score of 8.15, which is a strong signal for a potential price rebound.

Recent Chart Patterns: The WR Oversold signal has triggered several times over the past five days (August 22–27, 2025), indicating that the stock is frequently testing oversold levels. This could suggest a consolidation phase with potential for a breakout.

Trend Quality: Technical indicators are overwhelmingly bullish, with one positive signal and no bearish ones. The market is in a relatively calm state, but the strong WR Oversold signal suggests that rising opportunities should be closely monitored.

Conclusion

Walmart's technicals are in a strong position with a key oversold signal firing repeatedly. However, the stock has fallen 3.69% in recent days, and analyst ratings are mixed. While fundamentals remain stable and returns are decent, the recent price action and mixed analyst views suggest caution.

Actionable Takeaway: Investors may want to consider waiting for a pull-back or clearer momentum before entering new positions. Watch for confirmation of a breakout or further institutional buying for a stronger buy signal.