Stock Analysis | VICI Properties Outlook - Mixed Signals as Technical and Fundamental Indicators Diverge

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Volumes and momentum signals suggest a weak technical outlook, but fundamental strength persists — suggesting a cautious approach as conflicting signals emerge.

News Highlights

Recent global hotel developments are reshaping the hospitality landscape, potentially affecting Vici Properties’ real estate holdings:

• Macau's Gaming Revenue Surges: The latest weekly data from Macau shows average daily gaming revenue (GGR) rose to MOP686m, with a notable 25–30% jump in VIP turnover due to a new hotel's soft launch. This hints at increased demand for premium hospitality, possibly beneficial for Vici if it holds relevant assets.
• Hawaii's Hotel Tax Hike: Governor Josh Green signed a new hotel tax law to combat climate change, increasing taxes on hotel stays. While the move aims for sustainability, it could reduce short-term occupancy rates and profitability for hotel operators and real estate investors like Vici.
• Hilton Expands in the Caribbean and Beyond: Hilton announced plans for a new resort in Tobago and the InterContinental brand's entry into Ecuador. These expansions may signal broader industry optimism, indirectly supporting Vici’s portfolio in the long term.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The recent analyst activity on Vici Properties is sparse but optimistic. Simon Yarmak of Stifel gave the stock a “Strong Buy” rating on July 31. The simple average analyst rating stands at 5.00, while the performance-weighted historical rating is 6.04. This suggests a generally optimistic outlook among analysts, though there is some dispersion in views.

However, the stock's recent price trend has risen 1.92%, which is somewhat aligned with the weighted positive expectation, but the technical side signals caution.

On the fundamental front, Vici Properties shows strong value indicators, with a model score of 7.85 for fundamentals, indicating solid business health. Key metrics include:

• Annualized Return on Equity (ROE): 10.52% (model score: 3)
• Price to Cash Flow (PCF): 18.86 (model score: 3)
• Gross Profit Margin (GPM): 41.52% (model score: 2)
• Net Income to Revenue Ratio: 2.07 (model score: 3)
• Operating Revenue YoY Growth: 428.24% (model score: 2)

These fundamentals are generally strong, but the recent earnings and growth momentum may not yet have fully reflected in the stock's technical performance.

Money-Flow Trends

The fund-flow score for Vici is 7.69, which is considered “good” based on our internal diagnostic scale (0-10). Here’s how the money is moving:

• Big-money flows: The block investor inflow ratio stands at 48.23%, indicating significant institutional interest.
• Retail flows: The small investor inflow ratio is 49.43%, suggesting retail investors are also participating, but in a slightly more bearish tone overall.
• Overall trend: All categories (extra-large to small) show a negative trend, signaling caution among both big and small investors.

Despite the overall negative trend, the high fund-flow score implies that some of these movements could be strategic rather than panic-based, particularly among large players.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, Vici Properties is showing a weak outlook with a technical score of 2.65, indicating it is best to avoid at this time. Here’s a breakdown of key signals:

• Williams %R Overbought: internal diagnostic score: 1.5 — a bearish bias.
• MACD Golden Cross: internal diagnostic score: 1 — another bearish signal.
• Marubozu White: internal diagnostic score: 1 — indicates strong bearish momentum.
• Williams %R Oversold: internal diagnostic score: 7.09 — a rare positive signal, but not enough to offset the bearish weight.

Recent chart patterns include a Marubozu White candlestick and a MACD Golden Cross within the last five days, both historically associated with bearish outcomes. The overall trend is weak, with more bearish than bullish indicators active.

Conclusion

Vici Properties shows strong fundamentals and a generally optimistic analyst outlook, but the technical picture is concerning. With a fundamental score of 7.85 and a technical score of 2.65, the stock appears to be in a state of divergence. Given the bearish technical signals and the weak overall momentum, consider waiting for a pull-back or clearer trend confirmation before entering a position. Investors should keep a close eye on both earnings reports and key support/resistance levels in the coming weeks for more clarity on direction.