Stock Analysis | The Tjx Outlook - A Weak Technical Picture Amid Mixed Analyst and Fundamental Signals

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: The technical outlook for The Tjx is weak, with bearish signals dominating and a low internal diagnostic score of 2.22, suggesting investors should consider avoiding the stock for now.

News Highlights

Recent headlines don’t offer much optimism for The Tjx. Walmart’s move toward agentic AI in retail highlights growing competition in the retail sector, which could pressure TJX’s performance. Meanwhile, Lifeway Foods’ sales growth and Nykaa’s retail expansion signal strong momentum in consumer goods and retail, but these gains are unlikely to directly benefit TJX. No recent news directly impacts TJX, but broader retail trends could affect its performance.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts are split in their views. The only recent rating came from Telsey Advisory Group, which gave a "Buy" rating on August 13, 2025. However, historical data from this firm shows a 27.3% win rate and -0.73% average return, indicating poor reliability. The simple average rating for TJX is 4.00, while the performance-weighted rating is 2.71, pointing to significant dispersion among analysts.

Price trends have moved upward by 2.63% in the recent period, but this has not aligned with the weighted expectations of analysts. The market appears relatively neutral but inconsistent with the recent upward price movement.

On the fundamental side, the internal diagnostic score for TJX is 5.98, suggesting moderate quality in underlying business performance. Here are the key fundamentals and their scores:

• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY growth rate): -5.79% (internal diagnostic score: 2)
• Inventory turnover ratio: 2.91x (internal diagnostic score: 3)
• Operating cycle: 65.41 days (internal diagnostic score: 1)
• Fixed assets turnover ratio: 3.83x (internal diagnostic score: 3)
• Non-current assets / Total assets: 57.81% (internal diagnostic score: 3)
• Cash-MV: 28.22% (internal diagnostic score: 3)
• CFOA (Cash from operating activities): $0.05 per share (internal diagnostic score: 2)

While some fundamentals look decent, the weak operating cash flow and long operating cycle raise concerns about efficiency and liquidity.

Money-Flow Trends

The recent money-flow trends suggest a negative overall trend in large and medium-sized institutional flows. While small retail investors are showing a positive trend, big money (large and extra-large investors) is pulling back, indicating a lack of conviction.

• Large inflow ratio: 49.35% (trend: negative)
• Medium inflow ratio: 49.90% (trend: negative)
• Small inflow ratio: 50.01% (trend: positive)
• Overall inflow ratio: 48.94% (trend: negative)

This divergence between retail and institutional flows suggests that big investors are cautious about TJX, despite small investors showing some interest.

Key Technical Signals

The technical indicators for TJX paint a clearly bearish picture, with no bullish signals and three bearish ones. The internal diagnostic score is 2.22, indicating a weak technical setup.

• Williams %R (WR Overbought): 1.05 (internal diagnostic score: 1) – A signal of overbought conditions that historically has led to poor performance (avg. return: -0.36%).
• RSI Overbought: 5.84 (internal diagnostic score: 5) – Neutral to bearish with a mixed win rate.
• Ex-Dividend Date: 1.00 (internal diagnostic score: 1) – Historically, the stock drops by 1.24% on this date, with no win rate.
• Dividend Record Date: 1.00 (internal diagnostic score: 1) – Same poor outcome as the ex-dividend date.

Looking at the recent indicators by date, bearish signals intensified around August 14, with the WR, Ex-Dividend, and Record Dates all flashing negative signs. The key insight is that bearish signals are clearly dominant (3 bearish vs 0 bullish), and the technical trend is weak.

Conclusion

Actionable Takeaway: With weak technicals, bearish money flow from big investors, and inconsistent analyst sentiment, it may be wise to avoid entering new positions in TJX for now. Consider watching for potential earnings or any positive catalysts in the coming months to assess whether the stock can regain momentum. Until then, the internal diagnostic scores suggest caution.