Stock Analysis | Texas Instruments Outlook - Technical Weakness and Mixed Analyst Sentiment

Market Snapshot

Current Price Trend: Texas Instruments (TXN.O) has seen a recent rise of 4.89%, yet technical indicators suggest a weak trend with bearish signals dominating. Our internal diagnostic score for technical analysis is 1.84 out of 10, advising caution.

News Highlights

• McKinsey Report on Tariffs and Chip Supply Chains: A new McKinsey analysis explores the U.S. tariffs policy and its potential impact on the semiconductor sector. This could bring regulatory uncertainty to firms like Texas Instruments, which relies on global supply chains.
• Japan-U.S. Rare Earths and Semiconductor Cooperation: Japan plans to propose greater cooperation with the U.S. on rare earths and semiconductors. This may indirectly affect Texas Instruments if global semiconductor policies shift toward localization and protectionism.
• Japan's IME and IIT Kharagpur Sign Semiconductor Research MoU: The partnership aims to boost research in advanced chip technologies. While Texas Instruments is not directly involved, it highlights the competitive landscape and growing global focus on semiconductor innovation.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst Ratings Overview

There are currently 15 active analysts covering Texas Instruments, with 18 predictions made in the last 20 days. The simple average rating is 4.00, while the performance-weighted rating is 2.79. These scores indicate a mixed bag of opinions, with analysts ranging from neutral to optimistic.

However, there is notable disagreement among analysts, with 7 "Strong Buy" ratings, 4 "Buy," and 7 "Neutral." This dispersion suggests that while some see strong value, others are cautious. The current price trend (up 4.89%) does not align with the weighted expectations, creating a mismatch.

Fundamental Highlights

Key fundamentals show mixed performance:

• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities per Share (YoY growth rate %): 5.14% (internal diagnostic score: 1.00)
• Gross Profit Margin (GPM): 57.89% (internal diagnostic score: 3.00)
• Cash-UP: 85.71% (internal diagnostic score: 2.00)
• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities / Total Liabilities (%): 14.62% (internal diagnostic score: 3.00)
• CFOA: 5.32% (internal diagnostic score: 3.00)
• Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT / Interest expense %): 1155.17% (internal diagnostic score: 2.00)

Overall, the fundamental score is 6.63 out of 10, indicating moderate strength in financial metrics but with room for improvement in some operational metrics like cash flow growth and debt coverage.

Money-Flow Trends

Big money is showing a clear positive trend in flows into Texas Instruments. The fund-flow score is 7.52, categorized as "good." Here's how it breaks down by investor size:

• Large investors: 51.29% inflow ratio, positive trend
• Medium investors: 50.53% inflow ratio, positive trend
• Small investors: 50.38% inflow ratio, positive trend
• Overall inflow ratio: 54.25%, positive trend

This indicates that both institutional and retail investors are broadly accumulating the stock, reinforcing the recent price rise. However, technical indicators remain bearish, suggesting a potential divergence between market sentiment and chart patterns.

Key Technical Signals

Our technical analysis is bearish on Texas Instruments, with two bearish signals currently active and no bullish signals. Here’s a breakdown:

• WR Overbought: Internal diagnostic score: 2.69. This signal has shown a 17% average return historically but with a 47.37% win rate. The signal has been active for multiple days recently, including 2025-08-27 and 2025-08-25.
• RSI Overbought: Internal diagnostic score: 1.00. A stronger bearish signal with a negative average return of -5.40% and a 35.00% win rate. Also active recently on multiple days, including 2025-08-27 and 2025-08-26.

Key Insights: Both indicators are signaling overbought conditions, which typically precede corrections. This suggests weak momentum and a poor trend quality. The overall technical outlook is negative with the suggestion to avoid the stock at this time.

Conclusion

Texas Instruments is trading higher on strong inflows and positive macroeconomic news, but technical indicators are bearish. While fundamentals show moderate strength (score: 6.63), the technical score is poor (1.84). Analysts are split, with mixed recommendations and a mismatch in expectations and price action.

Actionable Takeaway: Investors may want to wait for a clearer signal from technical indicators before taking a long position. With bearish signals in play, it could be wise to consider waiting for a pull-back or a reversal in chart patterns before entering the stock.