Stock Analysis | Texas Instruments Outlook - A Mixed Bag of Signals Amid Market Volatility

Market Snapshot
TXN is in a negative price trend (-0.46%) despite a relatively strong fundamental score of 4.87. The stock faces conflicting signals from technical indicators and analyst forecasts, with bearish momentum dominating the chart.

News Highlights
Recent news surrounding Texas Instruments has been mixed. Key updates include:
  
India's semiconductor market is expected to grow over two-fold to $100-110 billion by 2030, signaling long-term potential for global chipmakers like TXN. The Indian government is pushing for secure, diversified chip supply chains.
  
TSMC, the world’s largest chipmaker, fired two engineers for suspected theft of trade secrets, highlighting ongoing global semiconductor supply chain tensions. This could indirectly affect TXN’s positioning in the competitive space.
  
Reports on U.S. trade policy suggest potential tariffs on semiconductors under Trump's proposed policies, which could pose risks to Taiwan and indirectly impact companies like Texas Instruments that serve the global chip ecosystem.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals
Analysts are divided on TXN, with a simple average rating of 4.00 and a performance-weighted score of 1.95. The rating consistency is low, as 7 out of 18 recent calls were Neutral, 7 Strong Buy, and 4 Buy. This contrasts with the stock's current price trend of -0.46%, suggesting market sentiment is pessimistic despite bullish fundamentals.

Key Fundamental Factors
  
Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY growth rate): 5.14% (Score: 1.00 internal diagnostic score)
  
Price-to-Sales (PS): 46.65 (Score: 3.00)
  
Gross Profit Margin (GPM): 57.89% (Score: 3.00)
  
GMAR: 57.89% (Score: 3.00)
  
Income tax / Total profit: 10.17% (Score: 2.00)
  
Cash-UP: 1.23 (Score: 1.00)
  
Interest coverage ratio (EBIT / Interest expense): 11.55% (Score: 3.00)
  
Net Profit Margin (NPM): 29.11% (Score: 2.00)
  
CFOA: 7.75% (Score: 3.00)
  
Cash-MV: 2.59% (Score: 1.00)

Money-Flow Trends
Texas Instruments is currently seeing negative money flows across all categories, with block trading (large institutional activity) flowing in at only 43.33% and retail flows (small investors) at 49.16%. Despite a positive flow for large investors at 50.60%, extra-large flows are declining at 40.90%.
The fund-flow score is 7.16 (good), indicating that while the stock is under downward pressure, it's still attracting moderate levels of institutional interest.

Key Technical Signals
Technical indicators for TXN are skewed bearish, with 4 out of 5 signals leaning down and only 1 showing potential for a rebound. The RSI Oversold remains the only positive sign, but it's outweighed by bearish patterns like the Bearish Engulfing and dividend dates.

Internal Diagnostic Scores by Indicator
  
RSI Oversold: 7.37 – A strong bullish signal indicating potential for a short-term bounce.
  
WR Oversold: 2.12 – A weak signal, suggesting caution.
  
Bearish Engulfing: 1.65 – A clear bearish reversal pattern with low win rate.
  
Ex-Dividend Date: 1.67 – Historically linked to price declines.
  
Dividend Record Date: 1.67 – Also associated with bearish sentiment.

Recent Chart Patterns (August 1 - 31, 2025)
  
August 1: RSI Oversold + WR Oversold – Mixed signals.
  
August 4: WR Oversold – Bearish confirmation.
  
July 30: Bearish Engulfing + WR Oversold – Strong bearish pattern.
  
July 31: WR Oversold + Ex-Dividend Date + Dividend Record Date + RSI Oversold – A cluster of bearish events.

Overall technical score is 2.9 (weak), and the key insight from the model is that “market is in a weak state, with a high risk of further declines.”

Conclusion
Despite strong fundamentals (4.87 score) and modest institutional buying (7.16 fund-flow score), TXN faces a bearish technical setup with a low internal diagnostic score of 2.9. Analysts are divided, and the stock is under downward pressure. Investors should consider holding off on new positions and watch for a potential pullback or positive reversal in the RSI signal before committing capital.