Stock Analysis | Texas Instruments Outlook - Bearish Signals Mount Amid Mixed Analyst Ratings

1. Market Snapshot

Headline: Price falls -2.51% as bearish technical signals dominate. The stock is under pressure technically with no major bullish indicators in the last five days, suggesting caution for investors.

2. News Highlights

Recent developments in the semiconductor sector highlight both challenges and opportunities:

• McKinsey's Tariff Report: New research from McKinsey suggests that ongoing U.S. tariffs could reshape semiconductor supply chains, potentially impacting Texas Instruments given its global manufacturing footprint.
• Japan-U.S. Collaboration: Japan has proposed new cooperation measures with the U.S. on rare earths and semiconductors, which could provide an indirect boost to the industry by reducing supply bottlenecks.
• Green Tech Push: A surge in demand for greener chips is prompting innovation. Texas Instruments may benefit from the shift toward energy-efficient semiconductors, especially in data centers and AI hardware.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts remain split on Texas Instruments (TXN.O), with 15 institutions issuing ratings in the past 20 days. The simple average rating is 4.00 (on a 1-5 scale), while the performance-weighted average is 2.79, suggesting recent predictions have leaned closer to the bearish side.

Rating consistency is low, with ratings ranging from "Strong Buy" to "Underperform," indicating a lack of consensus on the stock's near-term direction. This dispersion does not align with the recent price trend of a -2.51% drop, pointing to potential uncertainty in market sentiment.

Key fundamental values and internal diagnostic scores (0-10) are as follows:

• Cash from Operations per Share YoY Growth: 5.14% (score: 8.00) – healthy cash flow growth.
• Net Profit Margin (NPM): 29.11% (score: 8.00) – strong profitability.
• Interest Coverage Ratio: 11.55x (score: 7.00) – solid ability to service debt.
• Operating Asset Productivity (GPOA): 7.37% (score: 7.00) – efficient use of assets.
• Cash Conversion (CFOA): 5.32% (score: 7.00) – cash from operations slightly lagging.
• Net Profit YoY Growth: 10.81% (score: 6.00) – modest earnings growth.

4. Money-Flow Trends

Big money is showing interest in Texas Instruments, with 75.38% of large-cap inflows favoring the stock. The fund-flow score is 7.3 (good), suggesting strong institutional buying despite retail sentiment being mixed. Small and medium investors are also participating, with inflow ratios slightly below those of institutional players, at 50.02% and 50.29%, respectively. This divergence highlights the stock's appeal to long-term investors.

5. Key Technical Signals

Technically, TXN is showing a weak trend with no bullish indicators and three bearish signals over the past five trading days. The internal diagnostic technical score is 1.54, underscoring a high-risk environment for buyers.

Key bearish indicators and their internal scores (0-10):

• Williams %R Overbought: Score 2.48 – suggests an overbought condition with weak historical returns.
• RSI Overbought: Score 1.00 – classic bearish divergence in overbought territory.
• Bearish Engulfing: Score 1.15 – a strong bearish reversal pattern emerging in candlestick data.

Chart activity by date (recent five days):

• 2025-08-22: Williams %R Overbought, RSI Overbought
• 2025-08-26: Williams %R Overbought, RSI Overbought
• 2025-08-28: Bearish Engulfing candle confirmed

The key insight is a lack of upward momentum. With three bearish indicators and none bullish, the chart suggests sellers are in control, and short-term traders should consider avoiding the stock for now.

6. Conclusion

Texas Instruments is facing a tough technical headwind, with bearish signals dominating across multiple indicators. While fundamentals like cash flow and margins remain strong, the current price action and mixed analyst views suggest a cautious approach. Investors may want to wait for a pull-back or clearer bullish signals before entering the stock. For now, the internal diagnostic technical score of 1.54 and the recent price drop of -2.51% argue for a wait-and-watch stance.