Stock Analysis | Texas Instruments Outlook - Bearish Signals, Mixed Analysts, and Weak Technicals

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Texas Instruments (TXN) is showing a recent price rise of 6.48% but is weighed down by bearish technical signals and mixed analyst ratings. Investors should remain cautious as internal diagnostic scores highlight significant downside risk.

News Highlights

• McKinsey Report on US Tariff Impact: A new McKinsey report explores the implications of US tariffs on the semiconductor industry, a key sector for Texas Instruments. This could affect long-term supply chain strategies and margins.
• New Japanese-U.S. Cooperation Plans: Japan is set to propose enhanced cooperation with the U.S. in rare earths and semiconductors, potentially addressing supply chain vulnerabilities and reducing trade imbalances—favorable for global semiconductor players like TI.
• Environmental Concerns in Chip Manufacturing: Reports on the environmental cost of semiconductors highlight growing pressure on firms to adopt greener production methods. This could lead to increased R&D and capex for companies like Texas Instruments.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The analyst community is mixed on Texas Instruments, with 7 “Neutral,” 7 “Strong Buy,” and 4 “Buy” ratings in the last 20 days. The simple average rating is 4.00, while the performance-weighted score is 2.84, showing that historical performance has lowered the effective optimism.

Despite the recent price increase, the weighted analyst score is significantly lower than the trend, indicating a potential mismatch between market sentiment and analyst expectations.

Key Fundamental Factors

• EV/EBIT: 136.78 – internal diagnostic score: 3.00 (moderate)
• Cash-UP: 0.86 – internal diagnostic score: 3.00 (moderate)
• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities per Share (YoY): 5.14% – internal diagnostic score: 1.00 (weak)
• Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Shareholders / Net Profit: 99.47% – internal diagnostic score: 1.00 (weak)
• Basic Earnings per Share (YoY): 11.07% – internal diagnostic score: 0.00 (very weak)
• Interest Coverage Ratio: 11.55x – internal diagnostic score: 3.00 (moderate)
• Cash-MV: -0.35 – internal diagnostic score: 0.00 (very weak)

Money-Flow Trends

Despite the recent price rise, overall fund flows are negative, with large and extra-large investors showing caution. The block inflow ratio is 0.46, indicating that big-money flows are pulling back. Retail and institutional flows are also mixed:

• Large Trend: Positive
• Small Trend: Negative
• Extra-Large Trend: Negative
• Medium Trend: Positive

With an overall inflow ratio of 0.47, the market is showing a lack of consensus—particularly between institutional and retail activity. The internal diagnostic score for fund flow is 7.31 (good), but the divergent trends signal uncertainty.

Key Technical Signals

The technical picture for TXN is clearly bearish, with internal diagnostic score of 2.17 and more bearish indicators than positive. Here’s a breakdown of recent signals:

Internal Diagnostic Scores for Technical Indicators

• WR Overbought: 2.42 (neutral rise)
• WR Oversold: 2.43 (neutral rise)
• Bearish Engulfing: 1.65 (biased bearish)
• MACD Golden Cross: 4.53 (neutral rise)
• Dividend Payable Date: 1.00 (biased bearish)
• Bullish Engulfing: 1.00 (biased bearish)

Recent Chart Patterns (5 Days)

• 2025-08-14: WR Overbought + Bullish Engulfing
• 2025-08-13: WR Overbought + MACD Golden Cross
• 2025-08-12: WR Overbought + Dividend Payable Date

Despite a few neutral or slightly positive patterns, the overall technical trend is weak, with 5 bearish and 0 bullish signals in the past 5 days. The key insight is that “technical indicators show that the market is in a weak state, and we need to pay attention to the risk of decline.”

Conclusion

Texas Instruments is in a tough spot technically, with bearish signals dominating and weak internal diagnostic scores. While the recent price rise may attract some short-term interest, the analyst ratings and fundamentals are mixed, and the fund flow data suggests caution among larger players.

Actionable takeaway: Consider waiting for a pull-back before investing. Given the current bearish momentum and lack of strong fundamental catalysts, a strategic entry point may arise in the near term, especially if the stock retraces or if key sector news emerges.