Stock Analysis | Teradyne Outlook - Technical Weakness and Mixed Analyst Signals Amid Industry Volatility

1. Market Snapshot

Teradyne (TER) is currently showing signs of technical weakness with bearish indicators dominating the recent chart patterns, while analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the stock. The technical score stands at 3.59, which is an internal diagnostic score (0-10) indicating a weak outlook for the stock.

2. News Highlights

Recent news highlights key developments in the semiconductor industry and their potential impact on Teradyne:

• McKinsey's report on tariffs and chip supply chains points to ongoing regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. This could affect demand for semiconductors and create volatility for companies like Teradyne.
• Lansforsakringar Fondforvaltning AB publ's new investment in NXP Semiconductors signals growing institutional interest in the semiconductor sector. This may indirectly benefit Teradyne as investor appetite for the space continues to increase.
• Japan’s proposed cooperation with the U.S. on rare earths and semiconductors highlights global efforts to reduce dependency on China. This could lead to long-term tailwinds for semiconductor manufacturers like Teradyne.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts are divided but leaning cautiously positive:

• Average rating score (simple mean): 3.80
• Weighted rating score (performance-weighted): 4.62
• Rating consistency: Mixed – there are differences in analyst ratings, with three neutral and two "Strong Buy" ratings in the past 20 days.
• Alignment with price trend: Positive – the current price trend shows a 10.15% rise, which aligns with the optimistic market sentiment.

Key fundamental factors and internal diagnostic scores (0-10):

• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit: 100.0% (Internal score: 1 - bearish)
• PCF (Price to Cash Flow): 99.37% (Internal score: 3 - weak)
• Total profit (YoY growth rate): -30.18% (Internal score: 3 - bearish)
• Net cash flow from operating activities (YoY growth rate): 53.90% (Internal score: 2 - weak)
• Interest coverage ratio (EBIT / Interest expense): -89.84% (Internal score: 3 - bearish)
• Cash-UP (Cash to Market Value): 6.35% (Internal score: 0 - very bearish)

Overall, the fundamental score is 5.6, which is an internal diagnostic score (0-10), indicating mixed fundamentals with significant bearish elements.

4. Money-Flow Trends

Big-money and retail investor flows are showing a mixed picture for Teradyne:

• Small-inflow ratio: 51.74% – retail investors are cautiously optimistic.
• Large-inflow ratio: 49.96% – institutional flows are nearly neutral.
• Extra-large-inflow ratio: 35.66% – heavy institutional money is showing less interest.
• Overall fund-flow score: 7.48, which is an internal diagnostic score (0-10), indicating a good score in terms of liquidity and flow dynamics.
• Block trend: Negative – large investors are pulling back or holding off on new positions.
• Small trend: Positive – retail and smaller investors are showing some buying interest.

This suggests that while retail investors are cautiously supporting the stock, larger players are cautious or neutral, reflecting uncertainty in the near-term outlook.

5. Key Technical Signals

Technical indicators are mostly bearish, with the technical score at 3.59 (an internal diagnostic score, 0-10). The bearish signals currently dominate the chart:

• WR Overbought (Weak Relative): 1 – internal score (0-10), indicating a bearish bias with historical returns of -1.16% and a win rate of 34.04%.
• Long Lower Shadow: 1 – internal score, indicating a bearish signal with an average return of -0.58% and a win rate of 16.67%.
• MACD Death Cross: 3.16 – internal score, neutral with a historical average return of 0.60% and a win rate of 44.44%.
• Bearish Engulfing: 4.67 – internal score, a neutral-to-bullish pattern with an average return of 2.14% and a win rate of 50.00%.
• Bullish Engulfing: 8.12 – internal score, strong bullish signal with an average return of 1.72% and a win rate of 75.00%.

Recent chart patterns (last 5 days):

• 2025-08-20: Long Lower Shadow + MACD Death Cross – both bearish signals.
• 2025-08-13 and 2025-08-12: WR Overbought – bearish again.
• 2025-08-08: Bullish Engulfing – a rare positive signal.

Key technical insights:

• Momentum is weak – bearish indicators (3) outnumber bullish ones (1).
• Volatility is high – the market is in a mixed state, making it difficult to discern a clear trend.
• Suggestion: Avoid or monitor closely – technical conditions are unfavorable for aggressive entries.

6. Conclusion

Investors should consider waiting for a clearer technical signal before entering a position in Teradyne. While the fundamentals are mixed and the analyst sentiment is cautiously optimistic, the technical indicators and bearish flow patterns suggest caution.

Actionable takeaway: Monitor the upcoming earnings report and industry developments related to tariffs and supply chains. A pullback or a strong positive surprise from the company could present a more favorable entry point.