Stock Analysis | Teradyne Outlook - A Technical Warning Amid Mixed Analyst Ratings and Strong Cash Flows

Market Snapshot

Headline takeaway: Teradyne’s technical outlook is bearish with a score of 1.37, but its fundamentals and fund flows show moderate strength. Stance: Proceed with caution.

News Highlights

Recent news in the semiconductor space has highlighted both challenges and opportunities for the industry:

• McKinsey’s tariff analysis suggests ongoing uncertainty in the sector due to U.S. trade policy, which could impact global supply chains and demand dynamics.
• Japan’s cooperation plans with the U.S. on rare earths and semiconductors could reshape trade flows and reduce dependency on China, potentially boosting long-term demand for chips.
• Intel and AMD execs launching AI startups in India signal growing demand for AI chips, which could provide an indirect tailwind for Teradyne if AI infrastructure spending accelerates.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts are split on Teradyne, with a simple average rating of 3.80 and a performance-weighted rating of 4.62. The ratings are not entirely aligned with the stock’s recent price trend, which has risen by 9.03% over the last 20 days.

Key fundamental values and their internal diagnostic scores (0-10):

• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY growth rate): -7.24% – internal diagnostic score: 1
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit: 100.00% – internal diagnostic score: 1
• Total profit (YoY growth rate): -30.18% – internal diagnostic score: 3
• Net cash flow from operating activities (YoY growth rate): 53.90% – internal diagnostic score: 3
• Cash-UP: 6.31% – internal diagnostic score: 4
• Fixed assets turnover ratio: 2.50x – internal diagnostic score: 3
• Interest coverage ratio (EBIT / Interest expense): -89.91% – internal diagnostic score: 3
• GPOA: 9.92% – internal diagnostic score: 4
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (YoY growth rate): -29.23% – internal diagnostic score: 3
• Cash-MV: -0.71% – internal diagnostic score: 3

Money-Flow Trends

Despite the weak technical outlook, fund flow patterns show some strength. Small retail investors are showing a positive bias, with 52.84% of inflows coming from this segment. However, the block and large institutional flows are negative, with block inflow ratio at 40.64% and extra-large inflow ratio at 39.33%.

The fund-flow score is 7.54 (rated “good”), indicating that while large investors are cautious, the broader market is still showing some optimism in the stock.

Key Technical Signals

From a technical perspective, Teradyne is in a bearish state. Here’s a breakdown of key indicators and their internal diagnostic scores (0-10):

• Williams %R Overbought: internal diagnostic score: 1 – A bearish signal indicating overbought conditions.
• Dividend Announcement Date: internal diagnostic score: 1 – Historically, this event has been bearish for the stock.
• MACD Golden Cross: internal diagnostic score: 1 – Another bearish signal in the short term, despite the name.
• Marubozu White: internal diagnostic score: 2.48 – A more neutral signal, but it hasn’t offset the bearishness.

Over the last five days, the WR Overbought signal has been especially frequent, appearing on all five days, while the MACD Golden Cross and Dividend Announcement Date signals were active on one or two days.

Key insight: The technical side is weak, with 4 bearish signals and no bullish ones over the past five days. Momentum is clearly in a negative phase.

Conclusion

Actionable takeaway: While Teradyne’s fundamentals and fund flows are moderately strong and suggest long-term potential, the immediate technical outlook is bearish. Traders should consider avoiding new long positions and instead wait for a pull-back or stronger technical confirmation before re-entering. Investors should closely watch the dividend announcement date and the WR Overbought levels for potential turning points.