Stock Analysis | Teradyne Outlook - Navigating a Weak Technical Landscape Amid Mixed Analyst Sentiment

1. Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Teradyne (TER) has surged by 7.74% recently, but technical indicators suggest a weak trend with a strong bearish bias — investors should proceed with caution. Internal diagnostic score: 2.12 (weak).

2. News Highlights

• Tariffs and Chip Supply Chains – McKinsey’s analysis underlines the impact of US tariff policies on semiconductor supply chains. Teradyne, as a major player, could see mixed effects from policy shifts.
• Japan-U.S. Cooperation Plans – Japan’s proposal for closer cooperation in rare earths and semiconductors may indirectly benefit Teradyne by stabilizing global supply chains.
• Intel and AMD Executives Launch AI Chip Startups – The growing AI semiconductor space could see increased competition, possibly affecting Teradyne’s long-term market share.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Average Rating Score: 3.80 (simple mean).

Weighted Rating Score (performance-weighted): 4.62.

Rating Consistency: Analysts are not in strong agreement — three out of five recent ratings were neutral, and two were strong buy.

This divergence among analysts suggests a cautious market stance. Interestingly, the current price trend is upward (7.74%), matching the weighted expectations and indicating some optimism, though not consensus.

Key Fundamental Factors and Model Scores

• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities per Share (YoY Growth Rate %): -5.54% (Internal diagnostic score: 1.00)
• Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Shareholders / Net Profit %: 100.00% (Internal diagnostic score: 1.00)
• Gross Profit Margin (GPM): 57.23% (Internal diagnostic score: 3.00)
• Total Profit (YoY Growth Rate %): -30.18% (Internal diagnostic score: 3.00)
• Cash to Working Capital Ratio (Cash-UP): 6.32% (Internal diagnostic score: 3.00)
• Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT / Interest): -89.86% (Internal diagnostic score: 2.00)
• Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Shareholders (YoY Growth Rate %): -29.23% (Internal diagnostic score: 3.00)
• Cash-Market Value Ratio (Cash-MV): -0.71% (Internal diagnostic score: 0.00)

4. Money-Flow Trends

Large institutional players appear to be cautious. Big money (extra-large and large) is flowing out with negative overall trends. In contrast, retail investors (small and medium) are still showing a net inflow. Here’s the breakdown:

• Small Inflow Ratio: 52.57% (positive trend)
• Medium Inflow Ratio: 51.92% (positive trend)
• Large Inflow Ratio: 51.61% (positive trend)
• Extra-Large Inflow Ratio: 36.77% (negative trend)
• Overall Inflow Ratio: 40.47% (negative trend overall)

This suggests that while smaller investors remain optimistic, large players may be hedging or exiting the stock.

5. Key Technical Signals

Internal diagnostic score: 2.12 (weak trend, avoid the stock).

The recent technical signals are highly bearish. Here's a breakdown of key indicators and their internal diagnostic scores (0-10):

• WR Overbought: Score: 1.00 (very weak) — repeated overbought signals indicate a likely reversal.
• MACD Golden Cross: Score: 1.00 (very weak) — historically poor outcome for this bearish signal.
• Dividend Announcement Date: Score: 1.00 (very weak) — often followed by negative returns.
• Marubozu White: Score: 4.32 (neutral rise) — bullish pattern, but not enough to offset bearish signals.
• MACD Death Cross: Score: 4.32 (neutral rise) — mixed signal, not strong enough to reverse the bearish trend.
• Long Lower Shadow: Score: 1.07 (very weak) — another bearish candlestick pattern.

Recent Chart Patterns

Over the last five days, the most notable indicators include:

• August 26: WR Overbought and Marubozu White
• August 25: WR Overbought, Dividend Announcement Date, and MACD Golden Cross
• August 20: Long Lower Shadow and MACD Death Cross

This mix of signals points to high bearish momentum and weak technical support.

6. Conclusion

While Teradyne has seen a recent price rise, the technical indicators are deeply bearish and suggest a weak trend. Analysts are divided, with some showing optimism and others caution. Given the internal diagnostic score of 2.12 and the dominance of bearish signals, we recommend investors consider waiting for a pull-back or clearer signs of stabilization before entering the stock.