Stock Analysis | Tapestry Outlook - A Bullish Setup Amid Mixed Analyst Sentiment

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Tapestry (TPR) is showing a strong technical outlook with a bullish tilt, but fundamentals and analyst ratings remain mixed. Current price is up 5.53% recently.

News Highlights

• May 26: P15.8B Worth of Fake Luxury Goods Seized – The Philippine Bureau of Customs confiscated counterfeit luxury goods, which may indirectly highlight demand for genuine brands like Tapestry.
• May 29: Swiss Watch Demand Surges – Swiss watch exports to the US grew by 18.2% in April, driven by anticipation of US tariffs. This trend could benefit Tapestry’s luxury accessories business.
• May 30: LVMH Considers Price Hikes – LVMH, the world’s largest luxury brand, is considering raising prices to counter US tariff pressures. As a smaller luxury brand, Tapestry may follow similar moves, affecting margins and brand perception.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst ratings are spread across a range of 3.70 (simple average) to 4.88 (performance-weighted), indicating some inconsistency in expectations. Despite this, 7 of the 10 recent analyst ratings are "Buy," showing a generally optimistic sentiment.

Key Fundamentals and Scores (Internal Diagnostic Score 0-10):

• EV/EBIT: 136.07 (Score: 3) – High valuation relative to earnings could be a red flag for conservative investors.
• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities per Share (YoY Growth Rate %): -5.56% (Score: 3) – A declining trend in cash flow could signal operational issues.
• Asset-MV: -0.89 (Score: 4) – Suggests a weak balance sheet performance.
• Cash-MV: 6.49% (Score: 2) – Limited liquidity could constrain growth investments.
• Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Shareholders / Net Profit: 100.0% (Score: 1) – Indicates no non-controlling interests, but also shows no additional profit layers.
• Cash-UP: 136.39% (Score: 2) – High cash conversion rate but limited growth signal.

Money-Flow Trends

Large money flows are showing a negative trend across all categories, including extra-large, large, and block funds, with inflow ratios hovering just under 50%:

• Extra-large inflow ratio: 46.28%
• Large inflow ratio: 48.21%
• Block inflow ratio: 47.01%

This mixed signal suggests caution from big institutional players, though the fund flow score (7.87) is still rated as "good." Retail (small) investors also show a negative trend, but it's slightly more pronounced at 49.98% inflow ratio.

Key Technical Signals

Tapestry is showing a strong bullish bias from its technical indicators. The internal diagnostic score is 7.18, with the trend described as "strong, cautious and optimistic." Here’s how key signals are shaping up:

Top Indicator Scores (0-10):

• Dividend Announcement Date: 8.13 – A strong bullish signal with a 75% win rate and 2.03% average return.
• Earnings Release Date: 8.13 – Same score as dividends, with identical performance metrics.
• Long Upper Shadow: 8.13 – Suggests a possible short-term reversal or continuation of bullish momentum.
• WR Oversold: 7.78 – A strong bullish signal with 63.64% win rate and 2.99% average return.
• Marubozu White: 7.74 – A bullish candlestick pattern with high average returns.

Recent Chart Patterns:

• 2025-08-14: Long Lower Shadow (bearish), Long Upper Shadow (bullish), WR Oversold (bullish), Dividend Announcement, Earnings Release – A mixed but largely bullish day.
• 2025-08-26: Marubozu White (bullish) – A strong bullish confirmation pattern.

Trend Quality:

The technical analysis indicates that bullish signals (6) dominate over bearish ones (1), but volatility remains high. While the direction isn’t fully clear, the overall trend is cautiously optimistic.

Conclusion

Tapestry is in a bullish technical setup with several strong internal diagnostic scores, particularly around earnings and dividend announcements. However, large fund flows remain negative and fundamental scores are mixed.

Actionable Takeaway: Investors should consider monitoring the upcoming earnings release and dividend date on August 14 for potential follow-through bullish momentum. For now, it may be wise to watch for a pull-back before committing to long positions.