Stock Analysis | First Solar Outlook - Technical Weakness Looms Amid Mixed Analyst Optimism

1. Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: First Solar (FSLR) is showing a modest price rise (1.41%) but is hindered by a weak technical outlook and mixed fundamental signals. While analysts remain optimistic, the charts suggest caution.

2. News Highlights

Recent developments in the semiconductor sector have been mixed. On May 30, McKinsey & Co published research on US tariff policies and their potential impact on chip supply chains, highlighting a shifting regulatory landscape. Meanwhile, on May 28, the Semiconductors ETF (SOXX) saw a $750 million net outflow, signaling investor caution. This may influence crypto markets and broader tech sentiment, indirectly affecting First Solar’s prospects.

Japan also made headlines with its plans to deepen cooperation with the US on rare earths and semiconductors, aiming to reduce dependence on China and address trade imbalances. These geopolitical moves may influence supply chain dynamics and affect First Solar in the long term.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The analyst consensus shows a strong tilt toward optimism, with all three active analysts rating FSLR as "Strong Buy" in the last 20 days. The simple average rating score is 5.00, while the performance-weighted score is 4.79. Analysts include Jon Windham (UBS), Joseph Osha (Guggenheim), and Gordon Johnson (GLJ Research), all with a recent history of mixed to strong performance.

The rating consistency is high, with no dispersion in the recent ratings, and the positive outlook aligns with the recent 1.41% price rise. However, it is important to note that the weighted ratings do not fully align with the weak technical signals, indicating a possible divergence between sentiment and chart patterns.

Key fundamental factors show mixed performance:

• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY): -199.31% (model score: 2.00)
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit: 100.00% (model score: 1.00)
• EV/EBIT: 35.77 (model score: 3.00)
• Total profit (YoY): -10.03% (model score: 4.00)
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (YoY): -5.90% (model score: 4.00)

While some metrics, like net profit attribution, are strong, cash flow and profitability show signs of weakening. The overall fundamental score is 4.13, reflecting moderate strength with key concerns.

4. Money-Flow Trends

Big-money investors are showing a positive trend, with large and extra-large inflows at 50.93% and 52.64% respectively. The overall inflow ratio is 52.02%, with inflows also seen among small and medium investors.

However, while the block inflow ratio is 52.32%, it’s worth noting that technical indicators and fundamentals don’t currently support sustained bullish momentum. This suggests that while institutional money is flowing in, caution is still warranted given the weak chart patterns.

5. Key Technical Signals

The technical picture for FSLR is bearish, with 3 negative indicators and only 2 neutral or positive ones. The technical score is 2.85, which is an internal diagnostic score (0-10), and suggests a weak trend.

Key signals:

• WR Overbought (score: 1.00) – Overbought conditions indicate potential for a price correction.
• Long Upper Shadow (score: 1.00) – Suggests rejection of higher prices, bearish bias.
• RSI Overbought (score: 1.00) – Another warning sign of an overbought market.

Recent chart patterns include:

• 2025-08-18: WR Overbought and RSI Overbought
• 2025-09-05: Long Upper Shadow
• 2025-09-04: WR Overbought
• 2025-08-29: WR Oversold

Key insight: Bearish signals are clearly dominant (3 vs. 0), and the overall trend is weak. The model suggests investors should be cautious or avoid the stock until a reversal or pullback is observed.

6. Conclusion

Despite strong analyst sentiment and a modest price rise, the technical outlook for First Solar remains weak. With internal diagnostic scores showing a low technical score of 2.85 and mixed fundamental signals, the market appears to be in a vulnerable position.

Actionable takeaway: Consider waiting for a clearer pullback or a confirmation of a reversal before entering long positions. Monitor the next analyst updates and watch for any meaningful improvement in technical indicators before considering a bullish stance.