Stock Analysis | First Solar Outlook - Technical Signals Deter Investors Amid Optimistic Fundamentals

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Despite strong fundamentals, First Solar (FSLR) faces a weak technical outlook with bearish signals dominating and a suggested "avoid" stance.

News Highlights

• Japan-US Cooperation on Semiconductors: Reports indicate Japan is proposing greater collaboration with the U.S. on rare earths and semiconductor technologies, potentially countering China's influence and addressing trade imbalances.
• SOXX ETF Outflow: The US Semiconductors ETF (SOXX) experienced a $750M net outflow in May 2025, raising questions about investor sentiment in the sector and possible crypto market implications.
• NVIDIA Industry Comparisons: Multiple articles this week have focused on NVIDIA's competitive position in the semiconductors and semiconductor equipment industry, indicating heightened investor interest in sector dynamics and leadership shifts.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts from GLJ Research, UBS, and Guggenheim are largely aligned, issuing three consecutive "Strong Buy" ratings in the last 20 days. The simple average rating is 5.00, while the performance-weighted rating is slightly lower at 4.79. This shows a consistent sentiment across analysts with no major dispersion.

The current price trend is positive with a 1.41% rise, matching the optimistic market expectations reflected in the analyst ratings. This alignment supports the idea of a growing confidence in FSLR's long-term potential.

Key fundamental values include:

• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit: 100.0% (internal diagnostic score: 6.89)
• EV/EBIT: 35.77 (internal diagnostic score: 4.57)
• Cash flow from operating activities per share YoY growth: -199.31% (internal diagnostic score: 2.00)
• Net cash flow from operating activities YoY growth: -199.49% (internal diagnostic score: 1.00)
• Cash-MV: -0.86% (internal diagnostic score: 3.95)

Money-Flow Trends

Big money is flowing into First Solar with a block inflow ratio of 52.32% and an overall positive trend. This is supported by positive inflow ratios across all investor categories, including extra-large investors (52.64%), large investors (50.93%), and medium investors (49.71%). Retail investors also show a slight bias with a small inflow ratio of 50.13%. The fund-flow score of 7.69 indicates strong institutional and retail support.

Key Technical Signals

First Solar’s technical outlook is bearish, with four negative indicators outweighing no bullish signals. Recent chart patterns include a Long Upper Shadow on August 15 and a WR Overbought signal on September 4. Other overbought indicators like RSI Overbought and MACD Golden Cross suggest caution.

Key internal diagnostic scores for these indicators:

• WR Overbought: 1.00
• Long Upper Shadow: 1.00
• RSI Overbought: 1.00

Overall, the technical score of 3.07 suggests a weak signal with a “suggested to avoid” rating. Bearish momentum is dominant, with no clear positive trend emerging in the past five days.

Conclusion

First Solar (FSLR) remains a stock with strong fundamentals but weak technical support. While analysts remain optimistic with consistent "Strong Buy" ratings and positive fund-flow activity, the technical signals are bearish. Investors should consider waiting for a pull-back or clearer technical confirmation before entering a position. Watch for any potential earnings surprises or further analyst updates in the coming months.