Stock Analysis | First Solar Outlook - Navigating a Weak Technical Landscape Amid Mixed Analyst Ratings

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: First Solar (FSLR.O) is facing a weak technical outlook with bearish signals dominating and an internal diagnostic score of 2.31. However, recent fundamentals and fund flows show a more positive side with an internal diagnostic score of 4.99 and fund-flow score of 7.76.

News Highlights

Recent news around the semiconductor industry highlights both challenges and opportunities for firms like First Solar. Two notable developments include:

• McKinsey weighs in on tariffs and chip supply chains: A new analysis from McKinsey & Co. suggests ongoing uncertainty in the semiconductor sector due to U.S. tariff policies. This could impact demand for solar semiconductors and affect First Solar's market.
• Lansforsakringar Fondforvaltning AB publ Makes New $11.77 Million Investment in NXP Semiconductors: This indicates a shift in capital towards semiconductors and may reflect broader investor confidence in the sector, potentially benefiting First Solar as well.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The latest analyst ratings for First Solar reveal a mixed bag. The simple average rating stands at 5.00, while the performance-weighted rating is 4.25. These scores suggest a general optimism among analysts, though not all are in agreement—ratings are scattered between "Strong Buy" and "Underperform".

Notably, these ratings do not align well with the current price trend, which has fallen by 11.01% over the last five days.

On the fundamentals side, here are key factors with their values and model scores:

• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities per Share (YoY Growth Rate %): -199.31% (Internal diagnostic score: 2.00)
• Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Shareholders / Net Profit (%): 100.00% (Internal diagnostic score: 1.00)
• Total Profit (YoY Growth Rate %): -10.03% (Internal diagnostic score: 0.00)
• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities (YoY Growth Rate %): -199.49% (Internal diagnostic score: 3.00)
• Cash-UP: 0.24 (Internal diagnostic score: 3.00)
• Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT / Interest Expense) (%): -89.75% (Internal diagnostic score: 2.00)
• CFOA: 1.16% (Internal diagnostic score: 1.00)
• Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Shareholders (YoY Growth Rate %): -5.90% (Internal diagnostic score: 0.00)
• Cash-MV: -0.86 (Internal diagnostic score: 3.00)

Money-Flow Trends

First Solar has seen a mixed flow of capital across different investor sizes. Large and extra-large investors have been slightly more bullish, with inflow ratios at 50.56% and 51.77%, respectively. However, small investors have shown a negative trend with a 49.82% inflow ratio. The overall inflow ratio stands at 51.33%, suggesting that big money remains cautiously optimistic. This contrasts with the technical signals and price performance, hinting at potential future divergences.

Key Technical Signals

First Solar’s technical outlook is bearish with an internal diagnostic score of 2.31. The top signals contributing to this include:

• WR Overbought: Internal diagnostic score of 1.00. This indicator suggests the market is overbought and at risk of a pullback.
• RSI Overbought: Internal diagnostic score of 1.00. An overbought RSI typically precedes a downward correction.
• Long Upper Shadow: Internal diagnostic score of 1.00. This candlestick pattern is seen as a warning of potential bearish reversal.
• MACD Death Cross: Internal diagnostic score of 4.60. While this is a bearish signal, its relatively high score suggests it might not be a strong red flag on its own.
• MACD Golden Cross: Internal diagnostic score of 3.95. This is a bullish signal, but it appears to be less impactful when compared to the bearish indicators.

Recent chart patterns include a MACD Death Cross on 2025-08-26 and RSI and WR overbought conditions on 2025-08-18. These suggest a weakening momentum and a poor trend quality over the past week.

Conclusion

Investors in First Solar may want to proceed with caution. The technical signals are strongly bearish, and the price trend supports this with a recent drop of 11.01%. While fundamentals and fund flows are more encouraging—especially among large investors—the mismatch between technical indicators and market sentiment suggests consider waiting for a clearer pullback or improved technical alignment before entering.