Stock Analysis | The Sherwin-Williams Outlook - Mixed Signals Amid Analyst Optimism and Weak Technicals

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: The Sherwin-Williams (SHW) has seen a price rise of 11.47% recently, but technical indicators remain bearish with a weak internal diagnostic score of 2.39 — suggesting caution for investors.

News Highlights

Recent news surrounding SHW and the broader market includes:

• Safex Chemicals' Expansion: The new manufacturing facility in India is likely to bolster production and supply chain resilience, indirectly supporting chemical and paint sector players like Sherwin-Williams.
• US-China Trade Tensions: New export restrictions on chemicals and tech items to China could impact the demand for raw materials and logistics for companies with international supply chains.
• Indonesia-Singapore Solar Project: A 1 GW clean energy initiative by TotalEnergies and RGE highlights global green energy trends, which could benefit Sherwin-Williams through infrastructure and industrial coatings demand.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst Sentiment:

• Average Rating: 4.25 (simple mean)
• Weighted Rating: 4.95 (performance-weighted)
• Rating Consistency: Analysts are not fully aligned — recent ratings include 3 “Strong Buy,” 4 “Buy,” and 1 “Neutral.” Despite this, the weighted expectations match the current rising price trend.

Fundamental Highlights:

• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities per Share (YoY growth rate %): -7.01% (internal diagnostic score: 3/10)
• PE Ratio: 42.27 (internal diagnostic score: 2/10)
• Quick Ratio: 48.08% (internal diagnostic score: 3/10)
• Total Profit / EBIT (%): 88.62% (internal diagnostic score: 2/10)
• Cash-UP: 18.47% (internal diagnostic score: 2/10)
• Fixed Assets Turnover Ratio: 3.17 (internal diagnostic score: 3/10)
• CFOA: 4.39% (internal diagnostic score: 3/10)
• Cost of Sales Ratio (%): 51.14% (internal diagnostic score: 1/10)
• Current Ratio: 78.39% (internal diagnostic score: 2/10)
• Cash-MV: 64.68% (internal diagnostic score: 2/10)

The overall fundamental score is a moderate 6.51, indicating mixed performance — with strong asset turnover but weaker profit margins and cash flow indicators.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money flows remain negative with 48.08% of large and extra-large investors pulling back, compared to 51.19% of medium and small investors pushing in.

• Small-Trend: Positive, with 51.36% inflow ratio
• Medium-Trend: Positive, with 51.19% inflow ratio
• Large-Trend: Negative, with 49.83% inflow ratio
• Extra-Large-Trend: Negative, with 46.64% inflow ratio

This suggests that while retail investors remain optimistic, institutional players are cautious, resulting in an overall internal diagnostic fund-flow score of 7.78 (good).

Key Technical Signals

Technical indicators remain bearish, with a total of 1 bearish and 0 bullish signals over the last five days. The internal diagnostic technical score is 2.39 (weak), suggesting a low-confidence setup for new long positions.

Indicator Details:

• Williams %R Overbought: Score: 2.39 (weak). This indicator has historically shown an average return of -0.58% with a win rate of 47.89%, highlighting its limited effectiveness in current conditions.

Recent Technical Signals (By Date):

• 2025-08-11: WR Overbought
• 2025-08-12: WR Overbought
• 2025-08-06: WR Overbought
• 2025-08-08: WR Overbought
• 2025-08-07: WR Overbought

Technical Insight: The bearish bias is dominant, and with no new bullish signals emerging, investors should be wary of further downward momentum.

Conclusion

While analyst ratings remain generally positive (especially from high-quality institutions like Wells Fargo and Mizuho), technical indicators suggest caution — with a weak internal diagnostic technical score. The mixed signals suggest that investors should consider waiting for a pull-back before entering new positions. Those already invested should monitor both price action and any upcoming earnings reports for a potential shift in momentum.