Stock Analysis | Sempra Outlook - Mixed Signals as Fundamental Strength Meets Technical Neutrality

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Sempra (SRE) is in a technical wait-and-see mode, while fundamentals remain strong, but price trends are currently weak with a 2.16% drop.

News Highlights

• May 28, 2025 - Stryker leads West Michigan's largest publicly traded companies. While Stryker outperformed, the article highlights mixed performance from other large firms, which could signal broader market uncertainty affecting SRE.
• May 21, 2025 - SEC filing by SouthState Corporation. While not directly related to SRE, such regulatory activity can impact investor sentiment, especially in the banking and financial services sector where Sempra has exposure.
• May 15, 2025 - Independent Bank confirms leadership at its annual meeting. This indicates institutional confidence and stability in related sectors, which may offer a supportive backdrop for SRE's business lines.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Sempra has received a single Neutral rating from Barclays analyst Nicholas Campanella in the past 20 days. This is in line with the simple average rating of 3.00 and a performance-weighted rating of 3.33, indicating a generally neutral to bearish market expectation.

The current price is trending downward (-2.16%), while the average analyst rating is not aligned, suggesting a mismatch between price action and expectations. Analysts appear to be cautious, with only one recent rating provided by Barclays, an institution with a historical winning rate of 66.7%.

Key fundamental factors include:

• Basic earnings per share (YoY growth rate %): -12.13% with an internal diagnostic score of 8.34.
• Diluted earnings per share (YoY growth rate %): -12.18% with an internal diagnostic score of 8.34.
• Quick ratio: 0.41% with an internal diagnostic score of 8.34.
• Net assets per share (growth rate compared to beginning of year %): 1.31% with an internal diagnostic score of 8.34.

These figures show a strong underlying business with solid liquidity, despite recent earnings pressures.

Money-Flow Trends

Recent money-flow patterns for SRE show negative trends across most investor sizes. The overall inflow ratio stands at 49.59%, slightly above 50%, but the negative trend in both small and medium-sized investor inflows suggests a bearish outlook.

Big-money (Extra-large) inflow ratio is at 50.14% with a positive trend, while retail investors remain cautious. This mixed behavior highlights a tug-of-war between institutional confidence and retail uncertainty.

Key Technical Signals

Internal diagnostic scores (0-10) for recent indicators show a mixed bag:

• WR Overbought: 3.37 – signals a weak overbought condition.
• WR Oversold: 6.53 – a stronger bullish signal.
• MACD Death Cross: 4.5 – a weak bearish signal.
• Bullish Engulfing: 7.59 – a strong bullish reversal pattern.
• Marubozu White: 3.37 – a weak bullish signal.

Recent chart patterns:

• August 29: Bullish Engulfing – a strong reversal pattern.
• August 22: WR Overbought – suggests overbought conditions, which may trigger a correction.

Key insight: The technical picture shows a volatile market with no clear direction. The bullish and bearish signals are relatively balanced, and investors should remain cautious and watch for further signs.

Conclusion

Sempra finds itself in a technical stalemate with strong fundamentals but mixed technical and market signals. While the company's internal diagnostic score of 8.34 suggests a fundamentally strong business, the technical neutrality and recent price decline suggest a cautious approach.

Actionable takeaway: Investors should consider waiting for a pull-back or a clearer breakout in either direction before taking a position. Watch for upcoming earnings and any follow-up analyst coverage for further clarity.