Stock Analysis | Sempra Outlook - A Cautious View Amid Mixed Technical and Fund Flow Signals

Market Snapshot: Bearish Bias with Mixed Money Flows

Takeaway: Despite mixed technical signals and an internal diagnostic score of 4.76 (0-10), recent money flows show a positive big-money trend but a negative overall trend.

News Highlights: A Mixed Bag of Developments

• SouthState Corporation SEC Filing: The company filed an SEC Form S-3ASR, which could indicate a strategic capital move or restructuring. Investors may watch how this filing impacts market confidence and future earnings potential.
• Independent Bank Corp. Earnings Outlook: Recent reports suggest a slowdown in earnings for Independent Bank Corp., with analysts projecting a 5% dip in 2025 earnings. This could indirectly affect market sentiment toward financial stocks, including Sempra.
• Dividend Champion Highlights: A weekly update on dividend champions and contenders noted several companies maintaining consistent payouts. While Sempra itself is not highlighted, the overall market focus on dividend growth could still influence investor appetite for utility stocks.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals: Disparate Ratings Amid Strong Earnings Growth

Analyst Consensus: The recent analyst consensus shows a simple average rating of 3.00, with a performance-weighted rating of 1.65. There’s a lack of consensus among analysts, with only one active analyst (Citigroup’s Ryan Levine) giving a "Neutral" rating in the last 20 days. This disparity suggests a divided market view, with price trends showing a recent rise of 1.85%.

• Fundamental Factors and Model Scores:
  • Basic Earnings Per Share (YoY growth rate): -12.13%. Internal diagnostic score: 4.00.
  • Diluted Earnings Per Share (YoY growth rate): -12.18%. Internal diagnostic score: 4.00.
  • Net Assets Per Share (growth rate from beginning of year): 1.31%. Internal diagnostic score: 6.35.
  • Cash-UP: -0.52. Internal diagnostic score: 3.09.
  • Non-Current Assets / Total Assets: 95.83%. Internal diagnostic score: 7.70.
  • Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company / Net Profit: 95.06%. Internal diagnostic score: 3.68.
  • Total Assets (growth rate from beginning of year): 3.90%. Internal diagnostic score: 3.79.

Money-Flow Trends: Big Money Still on the Sidelines

Sempra's fund-flow score stands at a strong 7.81 (internal diagnostic score), indicating favorable movement in the larger capital. However, this contrasts with the overall trend, which is negative, as seen in the inflow ratio of 0.48. Breaking it down:

• Big Money vs. Retail: While large and extra-large inflows remain positive, small and medium investors are pulling back slightly. This suggests a cautious stance from larger institutional players, even as smaller retail investors remain hesitant.

Key Technical Signals: Bearish Momentum and Volatility

Internal Diagnostic Score: 4.76 (0-10) indicates weak technical signals and a need for caution. Bearish indicators (3 total) outweigh the bullish ones (1 total), with key indicators showing overbought conditions and a MACD death cross.

• WR Overbought: Internal diagnostic score: 3.79—suggesting limited upside.
• RSI Overbought: Internal diagnostic score: 3.68—overbought territory could signal a near-term correction.
• Bullish Engulfing: Internal diagnostic score: 7.70—a strong candlestick reversal pattern.
• MACD Death Cross: Internal diagnostic score: 3.09—classic bearish signal.

Recent Chart Patterns (Last 5 Days):

• 20250818: WR Oversold and Bearish Engulfing appear simultaneously, indicating volatile consolidation.
• 20250731: A mix of overbought conditions and bullish signals suggests a potentially indecisive phase.

Conclusion: Consider Waiting for a Pull-Back

With mixed technical signals, a weak technical score of 4.76 (0-10), and a bearish bias in indicators like RSI overbought and MACD death cross, Sempra (SRE) may not be in a strong position for aggressive entry. However, the positive big-money inflow and strong fundamental scores like Net Assets Per Share and Non-Current Assets suggest long-term resilience. Consider waiting for a pull-back or clearer technical confirmation before entering a long position.