Stock Analysis | On Semiconductor Outlook - Technical Neutrality and Mixed Fundamentals Amid Market Volatility

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: On Semiconductor (ON.O) remains in technical neutrality, with mixed signals from both fundamentals and analysts, suggesting a cautious wait-and-see approach.

News Highlights

• McKinsey weighs in on tariffs and chip supply chains: New research explores the impact of U.S. tariffs on the semiconductor industry, which could have ripple effects for On Semiconductor given its global supply chain exposure.
• Japan to Offer U.S. Proposals for Cooperation on Rare Earths, Semiconductors: Potential U.S.-Japan collaboration on rare earth materials may help diversify supply chains and reduce reliance on China, indirectly supporting semiconductor companies like ON.
• US Semiconductors ETF SOXX Faces $750M Net Outflow in May 2025: Broader industry outflows in semiconductors ETFs could signal investor caution, possibly impacting On Semiconductor’s stock performance and volatility.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The analyst consensus for On Semiconductor is mixed, with a simple average rating of 3.00 and a weighted average rating of 0.00. These scores diverge significantly, indicating strong dispersion in analyst expectations. The single active analyst in the last 20 days, Vivek Arya from B of A Securities, gave a Neutral rating, but with a 0.00% historical win rate and an average return of 3.93%. This weak historical performance makes it difficult to rely on analyst guidance.

Regarding fundamentals, the internal diagnostic score stands at 1.05, indicating a generally negative outlook. Key fundamental metrics include:

• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY growth rate %): -95.35% - a significant decline in operational cash generation per share.
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit (%): 100.73% - indicates strong alignment between net profit and parent company earnings.
• EV/EBIT: -43.19% - a negative ratio suggesting valuation or profitability challenges.
• Net cash flow from operating activities (YoY growth rate %): -8.63% - a modest but declining cash flow from operations.
• Total profit (YoY growth rate %): -138.16% - a sharp drop in total profit year over year.
• Cash-MV: -0.85% - a slight negative cash-to-market value ratio.

Money-Flow Trends

Recent fund-flow patterns suggest a nuanced picture. While the overall trend is positive, with an overall inflow ratio of 51.73%, there are notable sub-trends. The Extra-large trend is positive (53.28% inflow ratio), indicating large institutional interest. However, the Medium trend is negative (49.43% inflow ratio), and the Small trend is also negative (49.71% inflow ratio). This suggests that while big-money players are bullish, smaller investors remain cautious. The block trend is positive (52.54% inflow ratio), supporting the idea that large investors are building positions.

The fund-flow score is 7.46 (good), an internal diagnostic score (0-10), reflecting the positive inflow pattern from institutional and block traders.

Key Technical Signals

On Semiconductor's technical indicators are mixed, with both bullish and bearish signals in balance. The internal technical score is 5.36 (neutral), an internal diagnostic score (0-10), reflecting technical neutrality and a wait-and-see stance.

Recent Indicators and Their Scores:

• RSI Oversold: 8.47 (internal diagnostic score) - a strong bullish signal.
• Bearish Engulfing: 7.64 - a bearish signal with neutral rise implications.
• WR Oversold: 3.66 - a moderate bullish signal.
• WR Overbought: 1.59 - a weak bearish signal.

Recent Chart Patterns by Date:

• 2025-09-03: MACD Death Cross, Bearish Engulfing (bearish signals).
• 2025-08-22: WR Overbought, MACD Golden Cross, Marubozu White (mixed signals).
• 2025-08-11: WR Oversold, Bearish Engulfing, RSI Oversold (mixed signals).

Key Insight: Technical indicators show that the market is in a volatile state, with no clear trend. Long and short signals are balanced, and it is advised to pay close attention to market changes.

Conclusion

On Semiconductor is currently in a technical stalemate, with conflicting signals from key indicators and mixed analyst views. The internal diagnostic score for technical analysis is 5.36, while the fund-flow score is 7.46 (good), suggesting that institutional investors remain cautiously optimistic. However, the weak fundamental score of 1.05 and the neutral rating from B of A Securities indicate caution. Given this mix, it is advisable to wait for a clearer trend to emerge before making a significant move in ON stock.