Stock Analysis | On Semiconductor Outlook - Technical Neutrality and Mixed Analyst Sentiment

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: On Semiconductor (ON.O) is showing a price rise of 10.08%, while technical indicators remain neutral and analyst ratings are mixed. Investors are advised to monitor short-term volatility.

News Highlights

1. McKinsey on Tariffs and Chip Supply Chains

McKinsey & Co. has released a detailed report analyzing the impact of U.S. tariffs on semiconductor supply chains. The study highlights a complex and shifting landscape, particularly relevant for companies like On Semiconductor that operate globally.

2. Japan and U.S. Cooperation on Rare Earths and Semiconductors

The Japanese government is pushing for enhanced cooperation with the U.S. in rare earths and semiconductors, aiming to reduce dependency on China and correct the trade deficit. This could indirectly benefit global semiconductor manufacturers like ON, by stabilizing key supply inputs.

3. IIT Kharagpur and Singapore’s IME Sign MoU for Semiconductor Research

A new research partnership between India and Singapore in advanced chip design, AI, and quantum systems could accelerate innovation in the sector. While not directly tied to ON, it highlights growing investment in semiconductor R&D.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts remain divided on On Semiconductor’s outlook. The simple average rating is 3.77, while the weighted performance rating is just 1.90, indicating a stark disparity in both confidence and historical success rates. Despite a recent price rise of 10.08%, the market expectations are pessimistic, with a mismatch between the price trend and analyst sentiment.

• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit: 100.73% (score: 1.00, internal diagnostic score) – indicates no dilution.
• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY growth): -7.44% (score: 1.00, internal diagnostic score) – negative cash flow per share.
• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders (YoY growth): -139.91% (score: 2.00, internal diagnostic score) – significant contraction.
• Total profit (YoY growth): -138.16% (score: 2.00, internal diagnostic score) – severe earnings decline.
• Cash-UP: -1.14 (score: 3.00, internal diagnostic score) – cash levels trending downward.

These mixed signals underscore the need for further clarity in the company’s earnings and operational performance.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money investors are showing a positive overall inflow ratio of 50.74%, with large and extra-large flows also favoring accumulation. However, retail and mid-sized investors are slightly negative, with inflow ratios of 49.81% and 49.79%, respectively. This indicates that institutional confidence is growing, while retail caution remains.

Notably, the block investor trend is positive, with an inflow ratio of 51.09%, suggesting a potential base-building phase by larger players.

Key Technical Signals

On Semiconductor’s technical indicators paint a picture of moderate neutrality with strong volatility. The internal diagnostic score for technical indicators is 6.49, reflecting a balanced market with no clear direction.

• RSI Oversold (score: 8.47) – strong bullish signal, indicating potential for a rebound after overselling.
• Bearish Engulfing (score: 7.64) – a mixed signal, with a historical win rate of 75%, showing potential for bearish follow-through.
• WR Oversold (score: 3.37) – a weaker indicator, suggesting limited upside potential.

Over the past five days, the key indicators on August 11, 2025 included RSI Oversold, WR Oversold, and Bearish Engulfing. These signals suggest a mixed momentum, with both bullish and bearish patterns active in a high-volatility environment. Investors are advised to remain cautious and look for a breakout or consolidation pattern.

Conclusion

On Semiconductor is in a technical holding pattern, with mixed analyst sentiment and strong institutional inflows offsetting some of the bearish signals. While the RSI Oversold and Bearish Engulfing suggest potential for both short-term bounce and correction, the lack of clarity in directional momentum makes it a higher-risk trade. Investors are advised to wait for a clearer breakout pattern or monitor upcoming earnings for better guidance.