Stock Analysis | Ross Stores Outlook - A Mixed Technical and Analyst Picture

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Ross Stores is showing a modest price rise of 0.75%, but technical signals and analyst ratings are diverging, suggesting caution for near-term positioning.

News Highlights

Walmart Embraces Agentic AI – Walmart is preparing for a new retail era with agentic AI personal shopping agents. While not directly impacting Ross Stores, this highlights growing AI competition in retail.

Target Names New Leader for Roundel Retail Media Network – Target is restructuring its media network leadership under Matt Drzewicki, signaling continued investment in retail media, an area Ross Stores is also vying for.

Nykaa Expands Retail Footprint – Nykaa added 50 new stores in FY25. While this is in the cosmetics sector, it underscores the importance of physical retail expansion, which could be relevant for Ross as it continues its store strategy.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The consensus among analysts is mixed. The simple average rating is 3.56 and the performance-weighted rating is 2.36, indicating that while there are a few high-quality analysts, many have historically underperformed. Analysts are split in their views, with 5 "Buy" ratings and 4 "Neutral" ratings in the last 20 days. This disagreement contrasts with the current price trend, which has risen by 0.75%, suggesting a mismatch between expectations and market movement.

On the fundamental side, key values include:

• Operating Cycle: 60.64 days (internal diagnostic score: 3.15)
• Asset-Liability Ratio: 65.05% (internal diagnostic score: 2.00)
• Price-to-Sales (PS): 9.51x (internal diagnostic score: 0.00)
• Net Profit YoY Growth: 24.17% (internal diagnostic score: 0.00)
• Total Profit YoY Growth: 23.80% (internal diagnostic score: 2.00)
• Cash Flow from Operating Activities per Share YoY Growth: -6.14% (internal diagnostic score: 2.00)

While Ross Stores is showing some positive earnings and profit growth, the overall fundamental score is weak at 3.15 (out of 10), pointing to a stock that remains under stress in key financial metrics.

Money-Flow Trends

Big money is showing confidence in Ross Stores, with positive inflows across all size categories. The overall inflow ratio is 58.36%, with the extra-large inflow ratio at 60.70%. Retailers (small investors) are also participating, with a 50.81% inflow ratio. These figures indicate broad-based demand, with both institutional and retail investors showing positive sentiment. The fund-flow score is 8.15 (internal diagnostic score: excellent), reinforcing the strength of recent inflows.

Key Technical Signals

Ross Stores is in a weak technical condition, with an overall technical score of 4.28 (internal diagnostic score). Here's a breakdown of key indicators:

• Earnings Release Date: Strong bullish signal (internal diagnostic score: 8.13)
• Dividend Announcement Date: Bullish bias (internal diagnostic score: 7.72)
• MACD Death Cross: Biased bearish (internal diagnostic score: 1.00)
• Bullish Engulfing: Biased bearish (internal diagnostic score: 1.00)
• WR Overbought: Neutral rise (internal diagnostic score: 3.55)

Recent chart activity includes:

• 2025-08-21: MACD Death Cross and Earnings Release Date
• 2025-08-20: Dividend Announcement Date
• 2025-08-19: Bullish Engulfing

Technical insights suggest a volatile market with mixed signals. Long-short balance is fairly even, but the overall trend is not yet clearly defined.

Conclusion

Ross Stores is a stock caught in a tug-of-war between bullish earnings and dividend events and bearish technical signals like the MACD Death Cross. While recent money flows are positive, and the fundamentals show some improvement, the technical outlook remains cautious. Consider waiting for a clearer trend post-earnings and keep an eye on the dividend announcement for potential short-term volatility.