Stock Analysis | Qualcomm Outlook - Weak Technicals and Mixed Analysts Amid Sector-Wide Shifts

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Qualcomm faces a bearish technical outlook and mixed analyst expectations, despite positive inflows from large investors.

News Highlights

Recent headlines suggest a shifting landscape for the semiconductor sector. McKinsey has weighed in on the U.S. tariff policy, highlighting its potential impact on semiconductor supply chains. Additionally, Japan and the U.S. are planning closer cooperation on rare earths and semiconductors, which could reshape trade and manufacturing dynamics. Meanwhile, indie Semiconductor has shown weak financial performance with a negative ROIC of -18.68%, highlighting competitive pressures in the sector.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

On the analyst front, the simple average rating is 4.00, while the performance-weighted rating is 1.88, indicating a wide dispersion of views. This is further reflected in the recent 20-day ratings, where one analyst rated it "Strong Buy" (Rosenblatt) while others labeled it "Underperform" (JP Morgan, UBS). The current price is up 1.15%, but this rise is not matched by the overall sentiment, which is leaning pessimistic.

• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders / Net profit: 100.00% (internal diagnostic score: 1.00) – shows full net profit attribution.
• EV/EBIT: 25.68 (internal diagnostic score: 2.00) – moderate valuation.
• Net cash flow from operating activities per share (YoY growth): -6.14% (internal diagnostic score: 1.00) – weak operating cash flow growth.
• Total profit (YoY growth): 23.44% (internal diagnostic score: 2.00) – positive growth in total profit.
• Cash-UP: -0.38 (internal diagnostic score: 3.00) – negative cash flow impact on price.
• Interest coverage ratio: 21.67% (internal diagnostic score: 0.00) – high coverage but low score.

Money-Flow Trends

Investor sentiment is mixed in terms of fund flows. Large institutional investors and extra-large players are showing negative trends, whereas the small and medium-sized investors are in positive territory. Specifically, 50.58% of medium-sized funds and 50.58% of small-sized funds are flowing into Qualcomm. Despite this, the block flow (large investors) is negative, with an inflow ratio of 43.69%. This suggests a tug-of-war between retail enthusiasm and institutional caution.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, the outlook for Qualcomm is weak. The Williams %R indicator is in overbought territory, with an internal diagnostic score of 1.00 (out of 10), which is a bearish signal. This pattern has appeared repeatedly in the last five days, from August 22 to August 29, 2025, with historical signals averaging a -1.43% return and a win rate of 33.33%, further reinforcing caution.

• Overall trend: Weak. It is advised to avoid the stock based on recent technical signals.
• Indicators: Bearish signals are dominant (1 bearish vs 0 bullish).
• Momentum quality: Recent chart patterns are scarce, and the market is relatively calm.

Conclusion

Qualcomm appears to be in a precarious position right now, with weak technicals, mixed analyst sentiment, and divergent fund-flow patterns. Given the internal diagnostic score of 1.00 for technicals and a fundamental score of 3.3, the best course of action for most investors is to consider waiting for a pull-back before engaging with the stock. Keep an eye on how the semiconductor sector develops and how these mixed signals evolve in the coming weeks.