Stock Analysis | Pool Outlook - A Bearish Technical Picture Amid Mixed Analyst Sentiment

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Despite a recent price rise of 2.89%, the technical outlook for Pool (POOL) is weak, suggesting caution for new buyers. The internal diagnostic score for technicals stands at just 1.85 out of 10.

News Highlights

Recent industry news highlights ongoing challenges and opportunities for industrial distributors, with several articles from 2024 and 2025 pointing to:

• Supply Chain Disruptions: A recurring theme in news from early 2025 notes the continued impact of global supply chain disruptions, including tariffs and material shortages, on distributor operations.
• Technological Adaptation: Articles from late 2024 and mid-2025 suggest that distributors are increasingly leveraging smart technology and digital tools to streamline operations and improve customer service, signaling a shift toward modernization.
• Future Challenges: A late 2024 piece outlines the top challenges for industrial distributors, such as natural disasters, political instability, and pandemics, which can cause supply chain delays and higher costs.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The analyst consensus on Pool is mixed, with two institutions providing divergent ratings. Baird gave a "Neutral" rating, while Oppenheimer upgraded to "Buy". Here's the breakdown:

• Average Rating Score: 3.50 (simple mean of ratings: Neutral = 3, Buy = 4).
• Weighted Rating Score: 2.31 (based on historical performance of analysts).
• Rating Consistency: Low, with clear dispersion between the two institutions. Baird has a higher historical win rate (66.7%) compared to Oppenheimer (33.3%).
• Alignment with Price Trend: Analyst expectations are mismatched with the recent price rise. While the stock has gained 2.89%, the market expectations remain neutral to cautious.

Key fundamental factors as of the latest data point to mixed performance:

• ROE (diluted) (YoY growth rate %): 16.46% (model score: 0.39)
• Net profit margin (%): 8.68% (model score: 0.39)
• ROA: 5.29% (model score: 0.39)
• Cash-UP: 0.24 (model score: 0.39)
• Current liabilities / Total liabilities (%): 34.05% (model score: 0.39)

These metrics indicate moderate profitability and liquidity, but the overall fundamental score remains low due to mixed performance across key areas.

Money-Flow Trends

The fund-flow analysis for Pool shows a positive overall trend with mixed sizes of inflows:

• Big-Money Trends: Large and extra-large investors have shown some divergence, with the extra-large category trending negatively despite moderate inflow ratios.
• Retail Activity: Small and medium flows remain positive, with inflow ratios at 50.82% and 50.96% respectively, suggesting ongoing retail support.
• Overall Inflow Ratio: 50.37%, indicating a slight overall inflow of capital. However, the mixed trends among institutional investors suggest uncertainty.

The internal diagnostic score for fund flows is 7.87 out of 10, indicating a generally positive trend in money movement, though with caution due to institutional divergence.

Key Technical Signals

The technical indicators for Pool are overwhelmingly bearish, with six out of six signals leaning negative. Here's a breakdown of the most impactful indicators and their scores:

• WR Overbought: Internal diagnostic score: 1.0 (Biased bearish, with an average return of -1.85% and a win rate of 31.03%).
• Bearish Engulfing: Internal diagnostic score: 1.0 (Biased bearish, with a strong negative signal and a win rate of just 12.5%).
• MACD Death Cross: Internal diagnostic score: 2.79 (Neutral rise, but with an average return of -0.4%).
• Dividend Payable Date: Internal diagnostic score: 1.0 (Biased bearish, with a win rate of 25.0%).

Recent signals include a WR Overbought and MACD Golden Cross on September 5, 2025, which may signal short-term volatility. These signals reinforce the weak momentum and suggest that traders should be cautious of further downside moves.

The overall technical trend is negative, with six bearish indicators to zero bullish ones. The internal diagnostic score of 1.85 is extremely low, indicating weak technical health.

Conclusion

Pool's outlook remains bearish based on technicals, with a weak internal diagnostic score of 1.85. While fundamentals show moderate profitability and fund flows suggest ongoing retail support, the recent bearish chart patterns and divergent analyst views reinforce the cautious stance.

Actionable Takeaway: Given the weak technicals and mixed sentiment, consider waiting for a clearer pull-back or more robust earnings catalyst before entering new positions. Investors may want to watch for upcoming earnings and any further analyst revisions to gauge momentum shifts.