Stock Analysis | Pool Outlook - A Bearish Scenario Unfolds

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Pool (POOL) is under strong bearish pressure with a technical score of 1.69 (internal diagnostic score) suggesting to avoid the stock.

The stock's recent 5-day period has shown a steep decline of -2.53%. With 8 bearish indicators and no bullish signals, the technical outlook is weak.

News Highlights

• 2025-07-24: "How Distributors Are Solving Supply Chain Challenges" highlights the ongoing struggles in the distribution industry. This could negatively affect Pool as it operates in a similar space.
• 2025-06-20: "2025 Has Been Rocky for Many Distributors, But Outlook..." mentions that distributors dependent on the housing market are underperforming. Pool's performance could mirror this trend.
• 2025-01-07: "2025 Challenges Distributors and Wholesalers Need To..." lists political and economic challenges, which could pressure Pool's operating environment.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst Ratings

• Average Rating (simple mean): 3.50 (neutral).
• Weighted Rating (performance-weighted): 2.31 (underperform).
• Rating Consistency: "There are differences" among analysts. One analyst from Baird gave a "Neutral" rating while another from Oppenheimer gave a "Buy" rating.
• Price Trend Alignment: The current price trend (fall) aligns with the weighted expectations, suggesting a bearish outlook.

Fundamental Factors

• Net Profit Margin (NPM): 10.89% (internal diagnostic score: 1.91).
• Cash-to-Market Value (Cash-MV): 5.09% (internal diagnostic score: 0.84).
• Fixed Assets Turnover Ratio: 11.21x (internal diagnostic score: 1.74).
• Annualized Return on Equity (ROE): 38.53% (internal diagnostic score: 3.91).
• ROE (Diluted) YoY Growth: 16.46% (internal diagnostic score: 3.70).
• Equity Multiplier (DuPont): 2.74x (internal diagnostic score: 2.86).
• Asset-Liability Ratio: 64.62% (internal diagnostic score: 2.81).
• Current Liabilities / Total Liabilities: 34.05% (internal diagnostic score: 2.50).
• Non-Current Liabilities / Total Liabilities: 65.95% (internal diagnostic score: 2.65).
• ROE (Diluted): 19.07% (internal diagnostic score: 3.91).

Money-Flow Trends

The fund-flow analysis shows that large and extra-large investors are pulling back, with the overall trend negative. The block trend is also negative, indicating that big money is moving out. On the other hand, small investors are still inflating the stock, though not enough to offset the larger outflow.

Small Inflow Ratio: 50.97% (positive trend).

Large Inflow Ratio: 50.90% (positive trend).

Extra-Large Inflow Ratio: 46.80% (negative trend).

Overall Inflow Ratio: 48.38% (negative trend).

Block Inflow Ratio: 47.95% (negative trend).

Key Technical Signals

Internal Diagnostic Scores for Technical Indicators

• Williams %R (WR) Overbought: 1.00 (internal diagnostic score: bearish).
• RSI Overbought: 1.00 (internal diagnostic score: bearish).
• Bearish Engulfing: 1.00 (internal diagnostic score: bearish).
• MACD Death Cross: 2.79 (internal diagnostic score: neutral).
• MACD Golden Cross: 1.75 (internal diagnostic score: bearish).
• Ex-Dividend Date: 1.00 (internal diagnostic score: bearish).
• Dividend Record Date: 1.00 (internal diagnostic score: bearish).
• WR Oversold: 3.95 (internal diagnostic score: neutral).

Recent Chart Patterns

• 2025-08-13: WR Overbought, RSI Overbought, and MACD Golden Cross signals were present.
• 2025-08-15: A Bearish Engulfing pattern appeared.
• 2025-08-14: WR Overbought, Ex-Dividend Date, and Dividend Record Date signals were observed.
• 2025-08-08: WR Oversold appeared.

Technical Summary

There are 8 bearish indicators and 0 bullish signals, making for a very weak technical outlook. The overall trend is bearish, and the key insight is that "technical indicators show that the market is in a weak state, and we need to pay attention to the risk of decline."

Conclusion

Actionable Takeaway: Given the strong bearish signals and the weak technical outlook, investors should consider avoiding Pool (POOL) for now. The recent negative price trend aligns with the technical analysis, suggesting it's not a good time to initiate new positions. Watch for any positive earnings or fundamental improvements before considering entry.