Stock Analysis | Pool Outlook - A Bearish Profile with Strong Retail Inflows

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: The technical outlook is weak, with 8 bearish indicators and zero bullish ones, suggesting caution for investors. The stock has fallen 6.07% recently.

News Highlights

Recent news developments could offer some context to the bearish trend:

• GMTech Inc. launches a Web3 smartphone (May 30). The company's expansion into new technology could signal broader trends in innovation, but this has no direct impact on Pool.
• ETFGI reports $1.25 trillion in ETF assets in Asia-Pacific (May 31). This reflects a growing interest in passive investing, potentially affecting market liquidity and volatility for stocks like POOL.
• Genentech’s Itovebi shows positive results in breast cancer treatment (May 31). While encouraging for the healthcare sector, this news has no direct bearing on Pool’s performance.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts are divided, with a simple average rating of 3.50 and a performance-weighted average of 2.31. The ratings are not consistent, and the stock has been trending downward, aligning with the bearish sentiment.

Fundamental values include:

• ROA (Return on Assets): 5.29%, internal diagnostic score: 2.79.
• ROE (Diluted YoY Growth): 16.46%, internal diagnostic score: 2.
• Net Profit Margin (NPM): 10.89%, internal diagnostic score: 2.
• Rate of return on total assets: -9.13%, internal diagnostic score: 0.
• Cash-UP: 24.13%, internal diagnostic score: 0.59.

Though ROE and ROA are positive, the negative return on total assets and weak NPM suggest underlying financial concerns.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money flows are currently bearish, with large and extra-large investors showing a net outflow. In contrast, retail and medium-sized investors remain slightly positive, with inflow ratios above 0.50 for small and medium investors. This divergence suggests a mixed sentiment, with institutions likely reacting to bearish signals while retail remains cautiously optimistic.

Key Technical Signals

Internal diagnostic scores (0-10) for recent indicators highlight bearish signals:

• RSI Overbought: 1.00 — strongly bearish, with historical signals showing -2.28% average return and 22.22% win rate.
• WR Overbought: 1.00 — bearish, with an average return of -1.85% and 31.03% win rate.
• Bearish Engulfing: 1.00 — bearish candlestick pattern with -2.11% average return and 14.29% win rate.

Recent chart patterns include:

• Aug 13, 2025: WR Overbought, RSI Overbought, and MACD Golden Cross — mixed signals but dominated by bearish indicators.
• Aug 15, 2025: Bearish Engulfing — a clear bearish reversal pattern.
• Aug 28, 2025: Bearish Engulfing and Dividend Payable Date — both bearish signals.

Key Insights: The technical analysis suggests a weak trend with 8 bearish indicators versus 0 bullish ones. Momentum is clearly negative, and the market should be viewed with caution.

Conclusion

Given the weak technical signal and the dominance of bearish indicators, investors should consider avoiding Pool for now. The recent decline of 6.07% suggests further weakness could follow. However, strong retail inflows may offer a short-term counterbalance. It would be prudent to wait for clearer signs of stabilization before entering a position.