Stock Analysis | Oneok Outlook - A Weak Technical Profile Amid Mixed Analyst and Fundamental Signals

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Oneok (OKE) is facing a weak technical profile with bearish signals dominating, while fundamentals and analyst sentiment remain mixed. Current price action shows a 1.21% decline, aligning with bearish expectations.

News Highlights

• Colombia E&P investment set to rise 8% in 2025: A boost in oil and gas investment in Colombia may indirectly benefit Oneok, as global energy demand and production trends could strengthen.
• Tinubu introduces executive order to boost Nigeria's oil and gas sector: This move aims to reduce costs and improve efficiencies, potentially signaling a broader industry shift that could influence Oneok’s peers and market dynamics.
• Private equity exits in fossil fuels set to exceed 2024 levels: A rising number of fossil fuel deals could reflect increased sector confidence, possibly offering some tailwinds for Oneok, although fundamentals still appear mixed.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts are divided on Oneok. The simple average rating is 3.50, while the performance-weighted rating is 2.31. This suggests that recent analyst performance has been weak, especially for those with a "Buy" recommendation. The price trend of a 1.21% decline aligns with the bearish signals, reinforcing the need for caution.

Key fundamental metrics and their internal diagnostic scores (0-10):

• Price-to-Book (PB): 0.27 (score: 2.62)
• Net income-to-Revenue: 19.47% (score: 2.85)
• Profit-to-Market Value (Profit-MV): 0.71 (score: 2.57)
• Asset-to-Market Value (Asset-MV): 1.59 (score: 5.32)
• Inventory Turnover Days: 13.12 days (score: 3.96)
• Total Assets Turnover Ratio: 24.78% (score: 2.13)

Overall, the fundamental scores are mixed to weak, with the exception of Asset-MV, which suggests some positive strength in asset valuation.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money and institutional investors are showing a negative trend, with inflow ratios across all major categories hovering just below 50%. For instance:

• Large institutional inflow ratio: 49.62%
• Extra-large inflow ratio: 50.08%

This suggests a cautious stance from major players. However, the fund-flow score of 7.9 (internal diagnostic score) indicates that while the trend is negative, the overall flow is still relatively strong compared to others in the sector.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, Oneok is in a weak state with no bullish signals and three bearish indicators. The technical score is 3.23 (internal diagnostic score), and the trend is described as "weak" with a suggestion to avoid the stock.

Recent indicators by date:

• August 12 & 15: WR Oversold (internal score: 2.62)
• August 14: Dividend Payable Date (internal score: 3.99)
• August 25: MACD Golden Cross (internal score: 3.08)

Despite a few signals, they are not strong enough to reverse the bearish trend. The market has been relatively calm, with scarce technical signals and a volatile environment that has failed to establish a clear direction.

Conclusion

Given the weak technical setup, mixed analyst sentiment, and modest fundamental support, we recommend that investors consider avoiding Oneok for now. The stock lacks the momentum to break out of its bearish pattern, and until that changes, caution is warranted. Watch for a clearer breakout signal or a significant positive shift in analyst and institutional sentiment before considering a position.